This theory also generates the prediction that being ungenerous to one's own kin should be attractive
Isn't that what makes "Romeo and Juliet"-like stories "romantic"? When one forsakes one's own genetic clan to elope with the mate, it signals extreme devotion to the mate and is therefore attractive.
In this comment, I merely want to focus on using the Challenger Disaster Reaction example of market capabilities. I think it's a bad example.
I think it's basically a very interesting story that would be good to tell people at a party or in a TED talk to introduce people to the idea of prediction markets by using an obviously extreme example.
I think it is a mistake to confuse good storytelling with good empirical evidence. I don't think it's valuable empirical evidence about the market being able to make these kinds of predictions.
At this point, looking up to Tolkien seems like a likely result of the Halo Effect. His quotes make him seem way too overconfident in his philosophically dubious worldviews. I think I have a lot more respect for any random rationalist blogger than one who is that sure of himself but obviously wrong in some examples that are clear to us.