If the thesis in Unlocking the Emotional Brain is even half-right, it may be one of the most important books that I have read. It claims to offer a neuroscience-grounded, comprehensive model of how effective therapy works. In so doing, it also happens to formulate its theory in terms of belief updating, helping explain how the brain models the world and what kinds of techniques allow us to actually change our minds.

MIRI Technical Governance Team is hiring, please apply and work with us! We are looking to hire for the following roles: * Technical Governance Researcher (2-4 hires) * Writer (1 hire) The roles are located in Berkeley, and we are ideally looking to hire people who can start ASAP. The team is currently Lisa Thiergart (team lead) and myself. We will research and design technical aspects of regulation and policy that could lead to safer AI, focusing on methods that won’t break as we move towards smarter-than-human AI. We want to design policy that allows us to safely and objectively assess the risks from powerful AI, build consensus around the risks we face, and put in place measures to prevent catastrophic outcomes. The team will likely work on: * Limitations of current proposals such as RSPs * Inputs into regulations, requests for comment by policy bodies (ex. NIST/US AISI, EU, UN) * Researching and designing alternative Safety Standards, or amendments to existing proposals * Communicating with and consulting for policymakers and governance organizations If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on LW or at peter@intelligence.org 
I recall a comment on the EA forum about Bostrom donating a lot to global dev work in the early days. I've looked for it for 10 minutes. Does anyone recall it or know where donations like this might be recorded?
Quinn11h100
0
Thinking about a top-level post on FOMO and research taste * Fear of missing out defined as inability to execute on a project cuz there's a cooler project if you pivot * but it also gestures at more of a strict negative, where you think your project sucks before you finish it, so you never execute * was discussing this with a friend: "yeah I mean lesswrong is pretty egregious cuz it sorta promotes this idea of research taste as the ability to tear things down, which can be done armchair" * I've developed strategies to beat this FOMO and gain more depth and detail with projects (too recent to see returns yet, but getting there) but I also suspect it was nutritious of me to develop discernment about what projects are valuable or not valuable for various threat models and theories of change (in such a way that being a phd student off of lesswrong wouldn't have been as good in crucial ways, tho way better in other ways). * but I think the point is you have to turn off this discernment sometimes, unless you want to specialize in telling people why their plans won't work, which I'm more dubious on the value of than I used to be Idk maybe this shortform is most of the value of the top level post
Akash2d4115
3
I think now is a good time for people at labs to seriously consider quitting & getting involved in government/policy efforts. I don't think everyone should leave labs (obviously). But I would probably hit a button that does something like "everyone at a lab governance team and many technical researchers spend at least 2 hours thinking/writing about alternative options they have & very seriously consider leaving." My impression is that lab governance is much less tractable (lab folks have already thought a lot more about AGI) and less promising (competitive pressures are dominating) than government-focused work.  I think governments still remain unsure about what to do, and there's a lot of potential for folks like Daniel K to have a meaningful role in shaping policy, helping natsec folks understand specific threat models, and raising awareness about the specific kinds of things governments need to do in order to mitigate risks. There may be specific opportunities at labs that are very high-impact, but I think if someone at a lab is "not really sure if what they're doing is making a big difference", I would probably hit a button that allocates them toward government work or government-focused comms work. Written on a Slack channel in response to discussions about some folks leaving OpenAI. 
Morpheus13m10
0
Can anyone here recommend particular tools to practice grammar? Or with strong opinions on the best workflow/tool to correct grammar on the fly? I already know Grammarly and LanguageTool, but Grammarly seems steep at $30 per month when I don’t know if it is any good. I have tried GPT-4 before, but the main problems I have there, is that it is too slow and changes my sentences more than I would like (I tried to make it do that less through prompting, which did not help that much). I notice that feeling unconfident about my grammar/punctuation leads me to write less online, especially applying for jobs or fellowships, feels more icky because of it. That seems like an avoidable failure mode. Ideally, I would like something like the German Orthografietrainer (It was created to teach middle and high school children spelling and grammar). It teaches you on a sentence by sentence basis where to put the commas and why by explaining the sentence structure (Illustrated through additional examples). Because it trains you with particularly tricky sentences, the training is effective, and I rapidly got better at punctuation than my parents within ~3 hours. Is there a similar tool for English that I have never heard of? While writing this, I noticed that I did not have the free version of Grammarly enabled anymore and tried the free version while writing this. One trick I noticed is that it lists what kinds of error you are making across the whole text. So it is easy to infer what particular mistake I made in which spot, and then I correct it myself. Also, Grammarly did not catch a few simple spelling and punctuation mistakes that Grammarly caught (like “anymore” or the comma at the start of this sentence.). At the end, I also tried ProWritingAid, which found additional issues. Its free version is also just $10, so I will try it first.

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Produced while being an affiliate at PIBBSS[1]. The work was done initially with funding from a Lightspeed Grant, and then continued while at PIBBSS. Work done in collaboration with @Paul Riechers, @Lucas Teixeira, @Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel, and Sarah Marzen. Paul was a MATS scholar during some portion of this work. Thanks to Paul, Lucas, Alexander, Sarah, and @Guillaume Corlouer for suggestions on this writeup.

Introduction

What computational structure are we building into LLMs when we train them on next-token prediction? In this post we present evidence that this structure is given by the meta-dynamics of belief updating over hidden states of the data-generating process. We'll explain exactly what this means in the post. We are excited by these results because

  • We have a formalism that relates training data to internal
...
dr_s3m20

Given that the model eventually outputs the next token, shouldn't the final embedding matrix be exactly your linear fit matrix multiplied by the probability of each state to output a given token? Could you use that?

2dr_s8m
This is extremely cool! Can you go into more detail about the step used to project the 64 dimensional residual stream to 3 dimensional space? Did you do a linear fit over a few test points and then used it on all the others?
2cousin_it2h
I have maybe a naive question. How much do we need to know to find the MSP image within the neural network? Is it only doable if we know the HMM to begin with? Or could it be feasible someday to inspect a neural network, find something that looks like an MSP image, and infer the HMM from it?
1Adam Shai10h
This all looks correct to me! Thanks for this.

Can anyone here recommend particular tools to practice grammar? Or with strong opinions on the best workflow/tool to correct grammar on the fly? I already know Grammarly and LanguageTool, but Grammarly seems steep at $30 per month when I don’t know if it is any good. I have tried GPT-4 before, but the main problems I have there, is that it is too slow and changes my sentences more than I would like (I tried to make it do that less through prompting, which did not help that much).

I notice that feeling unconfident about my grammar/punctuation leads me to wri... (read more)

You have heard and perhaps even used the expression "observable universe", right? What is included in the purportedly observable universe? The moon? The whole of the moon? If you had heard the expression "observable universe" a century ago, would you have been including the far side of the moon in that category?

I recall a comment on the EA forum about Bostrom donating a lot to global dev work in the early days. I've looked for it for 10 minutes. Does anyone recall it or know where donations like this might be recorded?

tl;dr: Recently reported GPT-J experiments [1 2 3 4] prompting for definitions of points in the so-called "semantic void" (token-free regions of embedding space) were extended to fifteen other open source base models from four families, producing many of the same bafflingly specific outputs. This points to an entirely unexpected kind of LLM universality (for which no explanation is offered, although a few highly speculative ideas are riffed upon).

Work supported by the Long Term Future Fund. Thanks to quila for suggesting the use of "empty string definition" prompts, and to janus for technical assistance.

Introduction

"Mapping the semantic void: Strange goings-on in GPT embedding spaces" presented a selection of recurrent themes (e.g., non-Mormons, the British Royal family, small round things, holes) in outputs produced by prompting GPT-J to define...

3the gears to ascension3h
Claude is such a swell dude tbh. hope he's ok
Ann1h10

Hope so, yeah. I'm cautiously optimistic he's doing well by his standards at least.

1Ann12h
On the other end of the spectrum, asking cosmo-1b (mostly synthetic training) for a completion, I get `A typical definition of "" would be "the set of all functions from X to Y".`
4Gunnar_Zarncke14h
If I haven't overlooked the explanation (I have read only part of it and skimmed the rest), my guess for the non-membership definition of the empty string would be all the SQL and programming queries where "" stands for matching all elements (or sometimes matching none). The small round things are a riddle for me too. 

Daniel Dennett, professor emeritus of philosophy at Tufts University, well-known for his work in philosophy of mind and a wide range of other philosophical areas, has died.

Professor Dennett wrote extensively about issues related to philosophy of mind and cognitive science, especially consciousness. He is also recognized as having made significant contributions to the concept of intentionality and debates on free will. Some of Professor Dennett’s books include Content and Consciousness (1969), Brainstorms: Philosophical Essays on Mind and Psychology (1981), The Intentional Stance (1987), Consciousness Explained (1992), Darwin’s Dangerous Idea (1995), Breaking the Spell (2006), and From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds (2017). He published a memoir last year entitled I’ve Been Thinking. There are also several books about him and his ideas. You

...

 A Great Man and an inspiration to me and to this community and to all thinking men.

God rest his soul in peace in Paradise.

1tangerine4h
My introduction to Dennett, half a lifetime ago, was this talk:  That was the start of his profound influence on my thinking. I especially appreciated his continuous and unapologetic defense of the meme as a useful concept, despite the many detractors of memetics. Sad to know that we won't be hearing from him anymore.
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Value tracked Effect size d (λ, p, σ change) Effect size d (λ, p, σ change)
200 mg Caffeine (n=1, m=50) 500 mg L-theanine (n=1, m=50)
Log-score substance prediction[1] -0.6 -0.7
Absorption 0.61 (λ=13.3, p=0.00017, -0.072) 0.04 (λ=1.38, p=0.77, -0.07)
Mindfulness 0.58 (λ=11.8, p=0.0007, 0.021) 0.12 (λ=0.72, p=0.89, -0.018)
Productivity 0.58 (λ=28.9, p=1.3-12, 0.11) -0.28 (λ=5.51, p=0.109, 0.03)
Creativity 0.45 (λ=51, p=4.6-27, 0.09) -0.12 (λ=5.05, p=0.14, -0.04)
Happiness 0.27 (λ=10.6, p=0.002, 0.3) 0.16 (λ=3.98, p=0.27, -0.155)
Contentment 0.13 (λ=7.66, p=0.02, 0.47) 0.25 (λ=6.83, p=0.04, -0.04)
Relaxation -0.11 (λ=5, p=0.15, 0.42) 0.12 (λ=1.5, p=0.74, 0.02)
Chastity[2] -0.14 (λ=1.9, p=0.64, 0.11) -0.03 (λ=1.15, p=0.8, 0.25)
Flashcard ease 0.003 (λ≈∞, p≈0, -0.009) -0.072 (λ=∞, p≈0, -0.01)
Flashcard ease factor -0.039 (λ≈∞, p≈0, -32.7) 0.0026 (λ=∞, p≈0, -18.9)
Flashcard new interval 0.011 (λ≈∞, p≈0, -1.88) -0.016 (λ=∞, p≈0, 3.1)
Time per flashcard[3] 0.006 (λ≈∞, p≈0, 273.4) 0.003 (λ=∞, p≈0, 13.66)

L-Theanine is synergistic with caffeine in regards to attention switching[318] and alertness[319][320] and reduces susceptibility to distractions (focus).[320][321] However, alertness seems to be relatively subjective

...
Mir3h10

Edit: I found the post usefwl, thankmuch!!

Mh, was gonna ask when you were taking it.  I'm preparing to try it as a sleep-aid for when I adjust my polyphasic sleep-schedule (wanting to go fm 16h-cycles potentially down to 9h) bc it seems potentially drowsymaking and has much faster plasma decay-rate[1] compared to alts.  This is good for polyphasic if not want drowsy aft wake.

The data in [1] concerns 100mg tablets, however, and a larger dose (eg 400mg) may be longer. The kinetic model[2] they use will prob be good estimate of p... (read more)

Link to my own article. I removed the explanation of EV since I assume on LW that's not necessary.

A group of friends and I occasionally like to get together to play Poker. Yet something keeps happening that I have observed time and again with these kinds of group gatherings: It is hard to find a suitable date and then on top people cancel last minute. This is demotivating for other participants, who in turn also become less committed and this often leads to such groups failing.

Here is one theory of why this happens and how to solve it, explained with Poker. This article will assume Texas Hold'em Poker, probably the most popular variant.

tl;dr People's incentives are not aligned. The solution is to create a social rule that makes folding (canceling attendance) have a bit...

omark3h10

I'm gonna guess that you actually wouldn't make people pay for drinks if they said they missed because they had COVID, there was a death in the family, etc.?

This is a tough call. How do you determine what is a "legitimately bad enough" case to miss the event? The examples you mention are clearly bad enough but there are other situation where it's much more personal. If I'm feeling low on energy is that a choice I am making or an unavoidable fact about my metabolism? You would have to set up some kind of tribunal or voting for deciding on these cases. Th... (read more)

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