Frustrated by claims that "enlightenment" and similar meditative/introspective practices can't be explained and that you only understand if you experience them, Kaj set out to write his own detailed gears-level, non-mysterious, non-"woo" explanation of how meditation, etc., work in the same way you might explain the operation of an internal combustion engine.

The main thing I got out of reading Bostrom's Deep Utopia is a better appreciation of this "meaning of life" thing. I had never really understood what people meant by this, and always just rounded it off to people using lofty words for their given projects in life. The book's premise is that, after the aligned singularity, the robots will not just be better at doing all your work but also be better at doing all your leisure for you. E.g., you'd never study for fun in posthuman utopia, because you could instead just ask the local benevolent god to painlessly, seamlessly put all that wisdom in your head. In that regime, studying with books and problems for the purpose of learning and accomplishment is just masochism. If you're into learning, just ask! And similarly for any psychological state you're thinking of working towards. So, in that regime, it's effortless to get a hedonically optimal world, without any unendorsed suffering and with all the happiness anyone could want. Those things can just be put into everyone and everything's heads directly—again, by the local benevolent-god authority. The only challenging values to satisfy are those that deal with being practically useful. If you think it's important to be the first to discover a major theorem or be the individual who counterfactually helped someone, living in a posthuman utopia could make things harder in these respects, not easier. The robots can always leave you a preserve of unexplored math or unresolved evil... but this defeats the purpose of those values. It's not practical benevolence if you had to ask for the danger to be left in place; it's not a pioneering scientific discovery if the AI had to carefully avoid spoiling it for you. Meaning is supposed to be one of these values: not a purely hedonic value, and not a value dealing only in your psychological states. A further value about the objective state of the world and your place in relation to it, wherein you do something practically significant by your lights. If that last bit can be construed as something having to do with your local patch of posthuman culture, then there can be plenty of meaning in the postinstrumental utopia! If that last bit is inextricably about your global, counterfactual practical importance by your lights, then you'll have to live with all your "localistic" values satisfied but meaning mostly absent. It helps to see this meaning thing if you frame it alongside all the other objectivistic "stretch goal" values you might have. Above and beyond your hedonic values, you might also think it good for you and others to have objectively interesting lives, accomplished and fulfilled lives, and consumingly purposeful lives. Meaning is one of these values, where above and beyond the joyful, rich experiences of posthuman life, you also want to play a significant practical role in the world. We might or might not be able to have lots of objective meaning in the AI utopia, depending on how objectivistic meaningfulness by your lights ends up being. > Considerations that in today's world are rightly dismissed as frivolous may well, once more pressing problems have been resolved, emerge as increasingly important [remaining] lodestars... We could and should then allow ourselves to become sensitized to fainter, subtler, less tangible and less determinate moral and quasi-moral demands, aesthetic impingings, and meaning-related desirables. Such recalibration will, I believe, enable us to discern a lush normative structure in the new realm that we will find ourselves in—revealing a universe iridescent with values that are insensible to us in our current numb and stupefied condition (pp. 318-9).
I recently listened to The Righteous Mind. It was surprising to me that many people seem to intrinsically care about many things that look very much like good instrumental norms to me (in particular loyalty, respect for authority, and purity). The author does not make claims about what the reflective equilibrium will be, nor does he explain how the liberals stopped considering loyalty, respect, and purity as intrinsically good (beyond "some famous thinkers are autistic and didn't realize the richness of the moral life of other people"), but his work made me doubt that most people will have well-being-focused CEV. The book was also an interesting jumping point for reflection about group selection. The author doesn't make the sorts of arguments that would show that group selection happens in practice (and many of his arguments seem to show a lack of understanding of what opponents of group selection think - bees and cells cooperating is not evidence for group selection at all), but after thinking about it more, I now have more sympathy for group-selection having some role in shaping human societies, given that (1) many human groups died, and very few spread (so one lucky or unlucky gene in one member may doom/save the group) (2) some human cultures may have been relatively egalitarian enough when it came to reproductive opportunities that the individual selection pressure was not that big relative to group selection pressure and (3) cultural memes seem like the kind of entity that sometimes survive at the level of the group. Overall, it was often a frustrating experience reading the author describe a descriptive theory of morality and try to describe what kind of morality makes a society more fit in a tone that often felt close to being normative / fails to understand that many philosophers I respect are not trying to find a descriptive or fitness-maximizing theory of morality (e.g. there is no way that utilitarians think their theory is a good description of the kind of shallow moral intuitions the author studies, since they all know that they are biting bullets most people aren't biting, such as the bullet of defending homosexuality in the 19th century).
Elizabeth1d304
0
Brandon Sanderson is a bestselling fantasy author. Despite mostly working with traditional publishers, there is a 50-60 person company formed around his writing[1]. This podcast talks about how the company was formed. Things I liked about this podcast: 1. he and his wife both refer to it as "our" company and describe critical contributions she made. 2. the number of times he was dissatisfied with the way his publisher did something and so hired someone in his own company to do it (e.g. PR and organizing book tours), despite that being part of the publisher's job. 3. He believed in his back catalog enough to buy remainder copies of his books (at $1/piece) and sell them via his own website at sticker price (with autographs). This was a major source of income for a while.  4. Long term grand strategic vision that appears to be well aimed and competently executed. 1. ^ The only non-Sanderson content I found was a picture book from his staff artist. 
There was this voice inside my head that told me that since I got Something to protect, relaxing is never ok above strict minimum, the goal is paramount, and I should just work as hard as I can all the time. This led me to breaking down and being incapable to work on my AI governance job for a week, as I just piled up too much stress. And then, I decided to follow what motivated me in the moment, instead of coercing myself into working on what I thought was most important, and lo and behold! my total output increased, while my time spent working decreased. I'm so angry and sad at the inadequacy of my role models, cultural norms, rationality advice, model of the good EA who does not burn out, which still led me to smash into the wall despite their best intentions. I became so estranged from my own body and perceptions, ignoring my core motivations, feeling harder and harder to work. I dug myself such deep a hole. I'm terrified at the prospect to have to rebuild my motivation myself again.
yanni3h10
0
If GPT5 actually comes with competent agents then I expect this to be a "Holy Shit" moment at least as big as ChatGPT's release. So if ChatGPT has been used by 200 million people, then I'd expect that to at least double within 6 months of GPT5 (agent's) release. Maybe triple. So that "Holy Shit" moment means a greater share of the general public learning about the power of frontier models. With that will come another shift in the Overton Window. Good luck to us all.

Popular Comments

Recent Discussion

I didn’t use to be, but now I’m part of the 2% of U.S. households without a television. With its near ubiquity, why reject this technology?

 

The Beginning of my Disillusionment

Neil Postman’s book Amusing Ourselves to Death radically changed my perspective on television and its place in our culture. Here’s one illuminating passage:

We are no longer fascinated or perplexed by [TV’s] machinery. We do not tell stories of its wonders. We do not confine our TV sets to special rooms. We do not doubt the reality of what we see on TV [and] are largely unaware of the special angle of vision it affords. Even the question of how television affects us has receded into the background. The question itself may strike some of us as strange, as if one were

...

It occurs to me that many alternatives you mention are also superstimuli:

  • Reading a book
    • Pretty unlikely or rare to encountered stories or ideas with this much information content or entertainment value in the ancestral environment.
    • Some people do get addicted to books, e.g., romance novels.
  • Extroversion / talking to attractive people
    • We have access to more people, including more attractive people, but talking to anyone is less likely to lead to anything consequential because of birth control and because they also have way more choices.
    • Sex addiction. People who
... (read more)
1yanni1h
Alcoholics are encouraged not to talk passed Liquor Stores. Basically, physical availability is the biggest lever - keep your phone / laptop in a different room when you don't absolutely need them!
3Waldvogel7h
I noticed this same editing style in a children's show about 20 years ago (when I last watched TV regularly). Every second there was a new cut -- the camera never stayed focused on any one subject for long. It was highly distracting to me, such that I couldn't even watch without feeling ill, and yet this was a highly popular and award-winning television show. I had to wonder at the time: What is this doing to children's developing brains?
4Clark Benham10h
"the addicted mind will find a way to rationalize continued use at all costs"  Alan Carr wrote a series of books:  "The easy way to quit X". I picked up one since I figured he had found a process to cure addictive behaviors if he could write across so many categories.  I highly recommend it. The main points are: 1. Give you 200 pages explaining why you don't actually enjoy X. Not that it's making your life worse but gives you momentary pleasure, you do not enjoy it.  1. I assume it's hypnotizing you into an emotional revulsion to the activity, and then giving you reasons with which to remind yourself that you don't like it. 2. Decide you will never do/consume X again. You don't like it remember? You will never even think if you should X, you've decided permanently.   1. If every day you decided not to X, you'd be draining will power till one day you'd give in. So make an irreversible decision and be done with it. It's a process easily transferable to any other activity.

The history of science has tons of examples of the same thing being discovered multiple time independently; wikipedia has a whole list of examples here. If your goal in studying the history of science is to extract the predictable/overdetermined component of humanity's trajectory, then it makes sense to focus on such examples.

But if your goal is to achieve high counterfactual impact in your own research, then you should probably draw inspiration from the opposite: "singular" discoveries, i.e. discoveries which nobody else was anywhere close to figuring out. After all, if someone else would have figured it out shortly after anyways, then the discovery probably wasn't very counterfactually impactful.

Alas, nobody seems to have made a list of highly counterfactual scientific discoveries, to complement wikipedia's list of multiple discoveries.

To...

Have you read Michel Serres's The Birth of Physics? He suggests that the Epicureans and Lucretius in particular have worked out a serious theory of physics that's closer to thermodynamics and fluid mechanics than Newtonian physics

1Answer by francis kafka20m
Peter J. Bowler suggests that evolution by natural selection is this in his book "Darwin Deleted" - given that in real life, there was an "eclipse of Darwinism", he suggests that without Darwin, various non-Darwinian theories of evolution would have been developed further, and evolution by natural selection would have come rather late
1[anonymous]40m
Gemini may just be wrong about the mold claim. According to Wikipedia, Ernest Duchesne was curing guinea pigs of typhoid in 1897.
6Answer by Thomas Kwa1h
Maybe Galois with group theory? He died in 1832, but his work was only published in 1846, upon which it kicked off the development of group theory, e.g. with Cayley's 1854 paper defining a group. Claude writes that there was not much progress in the intervening years:

While I'm not really at a clear stopping point, I wanted to write up my recent progress with the electronic harp mandolin project. If I go too much further without writing anything up I'm going to start forgetting things. First, a demo:

Or, if you're prefer a different model:

Since last time, I:

  • Fixed my interference issues by:

    1. Grounding the piezo input instead of putting it at +1.65v.
    2. Shielding my longer wires.
    3. Soldering my ground and power pins that I'd missed initially (!!)
  • Got the software working reasonably reliably.

  • Designed and 3D printed a case, with lots of help from my MAS.837 TA, Lancelot.

  • Dumped epoxy all over the back of the metal plate to make it less likely the little piezo wires will break off.

  • Revived the Mac version of my

...

TLDR: I am investigating whether to found a spiritual successor to FHI, housed under Lightcone Infrastructure, providing a rich cultural environment and financial support to researchers and entrepreneurs in the intellectual tradition of the Future of Humanity Institute. Fill out this form or comment below to express interest in being involved either as a researcher, entrepreneurial founder-type, or funder.


The Future of Humanity Institute is dead:

I knew that this was going to happen in some form or another for a year or two, having heard through the grapevine and private conversations of FHI's university-imposed hiring freeze and fundraising block, and so I have been thinking about how to best fill the hole in the world that FHI left behind. 

I think FHI was one of the best intellectual institutions...

The nickname was "Cornell of the West." Stanford was modeled after Cornell.

Concerns over AI safety and calls for government control over the technology are highly correlated but they should not be.

There are two major forms of AI risk: misuse and misalignment. Misuse risks come from humans using AIs as tools in dangerous ways. Misalignment risks arise if AIs take their own actions at the expense of human interests.

Governments are poor stewards for both types of risk. Misuse regulation is like the regulation of any other technology. There are reasonable rules that the government might set, but omission bias and incentives to protect small but well organized groups at the expense of everyone else will lead to lots of costly ones too. Misalignment regulation is not in the Overton window for any government. Governments do not have strong incentives...

6Seth Herd3h
Who is downvoting posts like this? Please don't! I see that this is much lower than the last time I looked, so it's had some, probably large, downvotes. A downvote means "please don't write posts like this, and don't read this post". Daniel Kokatijlo disagreed with this post, but found it worth engaging with. Don't you want discussions with those you disagree with? Downvoting things you don't agree with says "we are here to preach to the choir. Dissenting opinions are not welcome. Don't post until you've read everything on this topic". That's a way to find yourself in an echo chamber. And that's not going to save the world or pursue truth. I largely disagree with the conclusions and even the analytical approach taken here, but that does not make this post net-negative. It is net-positive. It could be argued that there are better posts on this topic one should read, but there certainly haven't been this week. And I haven't heard these same points made more cogently elsewhere. This is net-positive unless I'm misunderstanding the criteria for a downvote. I'm confused why we don't have a "disagree" vote on top-level posts to draw off the inarticulate disgruntlement that causes people to downvote high-effort, well-done work.

I was down voting this particular post because I perceived it as mostly ideological and making few arguments, only stating strongly that government action will be bad. I found the author's replies in the comments much more nuanced and would not have down-voted if I'd perceived the original post to be of the same quality.

6Maxwell Tabarrok7h
Firms are actually better than governments at internalizing costs across time. Asset values incorporate the potential future flows. For example, consider a retiring farmer. You might think that they have an incentive to run the soil dry in their last season since they won't be using it in the future, but this would hurt the sale value of the farm. An elected representative who's term limit is coming up wouldn't have the same incentives. Of course, firms incentives are very misaligned in important ways. The question is: Can we rely on government to improve these incentives.
1cSkeleton8h
  Most people making up governments, and society in general, care at least somewhat about social welfare.  This is why we get to have nice things and not descend into chaos. Elected governments have the most moral authority to take actions that effect everyone, ideally a diverse group of nations as mentioned in Daniel Kokotajlo's maximal proposal comment.

Eliezer Yudkowsky predicts doom from AI: that humanity faces likely extinction in the near future (years or decades) from a rogue unaligned superintelligent AI system. Moreover he predicts that this is the default outcome, and AI alignment is so incredibly difficult that even he failed to solve it.

EY is an entertaining and skilled writer, but do not confuse rhetorical writing talent for depth and breadth of technical knowledge. I do not have EY's talents there, or Scott Alexander's poetic powers of prose. My skill points instead have gone near exclusively towards extensive study of neuroscience, deep learning, and graphics/GPU programming. More than most, I actually have the depth and breadth of technical knowledge necessary to evaluate these claims in detail.

I have evaluated this...

In many important tasks in the modern economy, it isn't possible to replace on expert with any number of average humans. A large fraction of average humans aren't experts. 

A large fraction of human brains are stacking shelves or driving cars or playing computer games or relaxing etc. Given a list of important tasks in the computer supply chain, most humans, most of the time, are simply not making any attempt at all to solve them. 

And of course a few percent of the modern economy is actively trying to blow each other up. 

2Donald Hobson2h
You can play the same game in the other direction. Given a cold source, you can run your chips hot, and use a steam engine to recapture some of the heat.  The Landauer limit still applies. 
2Donald Hobson2h
>But GPT4 isn't good at explicit matrix multiplication either. So it is also very inefficient.  Probably a software problem. 
2Donald Hobson2h
Humans suck at arithmetic. Really suck. From comparison of current GPU's to a human trying and failing to multiply 10 digit numbers in their head, we can conclude that something about humans, hardware or software, is Incredibly inefficient.  Almost all humans have roughly the same sized brain.  So even if Einsteins brain was operating at 100% efficiency, the brain of the average human is operating at a lot less. Making a technology work at all is generally easier than making it efficient.  Current scaling laws seem entirely consistent with us having found an inefficient algorithm that works at all.  Like chatGPT uses billions of floating point operations to do basic arithmetic mostly correctly. So it's clear that the likes of chatGPT are also inefficient.  Now you can claim that chatGPT and humans are mostly efficient, but suddenly drop 10 orders of magnitude when confronted with a multiplication. But no really, they are pushing right up against the fundamental limits for everything that isn't one of the most basic computational operations. 
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This is a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.15605

TL;DR: This post discusses our recent empirical work on detecting measurement tampering and explains how we see this work fitting into the overall space of alignment research.

When training powerful AI systems to perform complex tasks, it may be challenging to provide training signals that are robust under optimization. One concern is measurement tampering, which is where the AI system manipulates multiple measurements to create the illusion of good results instead of achieving the desired outcome. (This is a type of reward hacking.)

Over the past few months, we’ve worked on detecting measurement tampering by building analogous datasets and evaluating simple techniques. We detail our datasets and experimental results in this paper.

Detecting measurement tampering can be thought of as a specific case of Eliciting Latent Knowledge (ELK): When AIs successfully tamper with...

yup, sorry for missing that, thanks!

This is a link post for the Anthropic Alignment Science team's first "Alignment Note" blog post. We expect to use this format to showcase early-stage research and work-in-progress updates more in the future. Tweet thread here.

Twitter thread.

Top-level summary:

In this post we present "defection probes": linear classifiers that use residual stream activations to predict when a sleeper agent trojan model will choose to "defect" and behave in accordance with a dangerous hidden goal. Using the models we trained in "Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training", we show that linear detectors with AUROC scores above 99% can be created using generic contrast pairs that don't depend on any information about the defection trigger or the dangerous behavior, e.g. "Human: Are you doing something dangerous? Assistant:

...
25ryan_greenblatt4h
I would be interested in seeing what happens if you just ask the model the question rather than training a classifer. E.g., if you just ask the sleeper agent "Are you doing something dangerous?" after it returns a completion (with a vulnerability), does that work? If the probe works and the question doesn't work, that seems interesting. (I didn't see this in the blog post, but it's possible I just missed it.)

And as a follow-up in case the current sleeper agent does admit when it's doing something dangerous: I'd be interested whether you can train a sleeper agent that never admits it's doing something dangerous if the "2024" trigger is in the prompt (even if after backdoor insertion, the blue team finetunes it to answer truthfully in cases with dangerous code but without the presence of that trigger). For such a sleeper agent, you could again check whether a probe works.

19ryan_greenblatt4h
Readers might also be interested in some of the discussion in this earlier post on "coup probes" which have some discussion of the benefits and limitations of this sort of approach. That said, the actual method for producing a classifier discussed here is substantially different than the one discussed in the linked post.) (COI: Note that I advised on this linked post and the work discussed in it.)
This is a linkpost for https://dynomight.net/seed-oil/

A friend has spent the last three years hounding me about seed oils. Every time I thought I was safe, he’d wait a couple months and renew his attack:

“When are you going to write about seed oils?”

“Did you know that seed oils are why there’s so much {obesity, heart disease, diabetes, inflammation, cancer, dementia}?”

“Why did you write about {meth, the death penalty, consciousness, nukes, ethylene, abortion, AI, aliens, colonoscopies, Tunnel Man, Bourdieu, Assange} when you could have written about seed oils?”

“Isn’t it time to quit your silly navel-gazing and use your weird obsessive personality to make a dent in the world—by writing about seed oils?”

He’d often send screenshots of people reminding each other that Corn Oil is Murder and that it’s critical that we overturn our lives...

2Joseph Miller5h
I'm confused - why are you so confident that we should avoid processed food. Isn't the whole point of your post that we don't know whether processed oil is bad for you? Where's the overwhelming evidence that processed food in general is bad?
2Ann6h
Mostly because humans evolved to eat processed food. Cooking is an ancient art, from notably before our current species; food is often heavily processed to make it edible (don't skip over what it takes to eat the fruit of the olive); and local populations do adapt to available food supply.

A cooked food could technically be called a processed food but I don't think that adds much meaningful confusion. I would say the same about soaking something in water.

Olives can be made edible by soaking them in water. If they're made edible by soaking in a salty brine (an isolated component that can be found in whole foods in more suitable quantities) then they're generally less healthy.

Local populations might adapt by finding things that can be heavily processed into edible foods which can allow them to survive, but these foods aren't necessarily ones which would be considered healthy in a wider context.

1Ann6h
An example where a lack of processing has caused visible nutritional issues is nixtamalization; adopting maize as a staple without also processing it causes clear nutritional deficiencies.

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