Rationalist Reading Group (Online)
Budapest Meetup on Margit Sziget
Ann Arbor SSC Online Meetup
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Wednesday, July 29th 2020
Wed, Jul 29th 2020
What a 20-year-lead in military tech might look like
What Failure Looks Like: Distilling the Discussion
New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds
Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines
Learning the prior and generalization
Predictions for GPT-N
Parameters of Privacy
The "best predictor is malicious optimiser" problem
[AN #110]: Learning features from human feedback to enable reward learning
Improving local governance in fragile states - practical lessons from the field
Structured Tasks for Language Models
Likely AGI architectures?
This might be the best figure I've ever seen in a textbook. Talk about making a point! Molecular Biology of the Cell, Alberts.
The results of Bob Jacob's LessWrong survey [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yn4Aw6jejS3SHKuzu/2020-lesswrong-demographics-survey-results] are quite interesting. It's a pity the sample is so small. The visualized results (link in his post) are univariate, but I would like to highlight some things: 49 out of 56 respondents identifying as "White", 53 out of 59 respondents born male and 46 out of 58 identifying male cisgender 47 of 59 identifying as heterosexual (comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientation [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientation) 1]) 1 out of 55 working in a "blue collar" profession Most people identify as "left of center" in some sense. At the same time, 30 out of 55 identify as "libertarian", but there were multiple answers allowed. 31 of 59 respondents think they are at least "upper middle class"; 22 of 59 think the family they were raised in was "upper middle class". (Background: In social science surveys, wealthy people usually underestimate their position, and poor people overestimate it but to a lesser extent.) I would not have guessed the left-of-center identification, and I would have slightly underestimated the share of male (cisgender).
A checklist for the strength of ideas: Think "D-SHARP" * Is it worth discussing? * Is it worth studying? * Is it worth using as a heuristic? * Is it worth advertising? * Is it worth regulating or policing? Worthwhile research should help the idea move either forward or backward through this sequence.