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October 2019

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41DanielFilan3moHot take: if you think that we'll have at least 30 more years of future where geopolitics and nations are relevant, I think you should pay at least 50% as much attention to India as to China. Similarly large population, similarly large number of great thinkers and researchers. Currently seems less 'interesting', but that sort of thing changes over 30-year timescales. As such, I think there should probably be some number of 'India specialists' in EA policy positions that isn't dwarfed by the number of 'China specialists'.
37elityre3moNew post: Some notes on Von Neumann, as a human being [https://musingsandroughdrafts.wordpress.com/2019/10/26/some-notes-on-von-neumann-as-a-human-being/] I recently read Prisoner’s Dilemma, which half an introduction to very elementary game theory, and half a biography of John Von Neumann, and watched this [https://youtu.be/vLbllFHBQM4] old PBS documentary about the man. I’m glad I did. Von Neumann has legendary status in my circles, as the smartest person ever to live. [1] Many times I’ve written the words “Von Neumann Level Intelligence” in a AI strategy document, or speculated [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/07/30855.html#comment-4174545474] about how many coordinated Von Neumanns would it take to take over the world. (For reference, I now think that 10 is far too low, mostly because he didn’t seem to have the entrepreneurial or managerial dispositions.) Learning a little bit more about him was humanizing. Yes, he was the smartest person ever to live, but he was also an actual human being, with actual human traits. Watching this first clip [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLbllFHBQM4], I noticed that I was surprised by a number of thing. 1. That VN had an accent. I had known that he was Hungarian, but somehow it had never quite propagated that he would speak with a Hungarian accent. 2. That he was middling height (somewhat shorter than the presenter he’s talking too). 3. The thing he is saying is the sort of thing that I would expect to hear from any scientist in the public eye, “science education is important.” There is something revealing about Von Neumann, despite being the smartest person in the world, saying basically what I would expect Neil DeGrasse Tyson to say in an interview. A lot of the time he was wearing his “scientist / public intellectual” hat, not the “smartest person ever to live” hat. Some other notes of interest: He was not a skilled poker player, which punctured my assumption that Von Neumann was om
29Daniel Kokotajlo3moMy baby daughter was born two weeks ago, and in honor of her existence I'm building a list of about 100 technology-related forecasting questions, which will resolve in 5, 10, and 20 years. Questions like "By the time my daughter is 5/10/20 years old, the average US citizen will be able to hail a driverless taxi in most major US cities." (The idea is, tying it to my daughter's age will make it more fun and also increase the likelihood that I actually go back and look at it 10 years later.) I'd love it if the questions were online somewhere so other people could record their answers too. Does this seem like a good idea? Hive mind, I beseech you: Help me spot ways in which this could end badly! On a more positive note, any suggestions for how to do it? Any expressions of interest in making predictions with me? Thanks! EDIT: Now it's done, though I have yet to import it to Foretold.io it works perfectly fine in spreadsheet form [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PmMRSgwdmRWr7xy7gXUFfE1-O36cpPfLgKflp_JFT1I/edit?usp=sharing] .
25Vaniver3mo[Meta: this is normally something I would post on my tumblr [https://vaniver.tumblr.com/], but instead am putting on LW as an experiment.] Sometimes, in games like Dungeons and Dragons, there will be multiple races of sapient beings, with humans as a sort of baseline. Elves are often extremely long-lived, but most handlings of this I find pretty unsatisfying. Here's a new take, that I don't think I've seen before (except the Ell in Worth the Candle [https://archiveofourown.org/works/11478249/chapters/25740126] have some mild similarities): Humans go through puberty at about 15 and become adults around 20, lose fertility (at least among women) at about 40, and then become frail at about 60. Elves still 'become adults' around 20, in that a 21-year old elf adventurer is as plausible as a 21-year old human adventurer, but they go through puberty at about 40 (and lose fertility at about 60-70), and then become frail at about 120. This has a few effects: * The peak skill of elven civilization is much higher than the peak skill of human civilization (as a 60-year old master carpenter has had only ~5 decades of skill growth, whereas a 120-year old master carpenter has had ~11). There's also much more of an 'apprenticeship' phase in elven civilization (compare modern academic society's "you aren't fully in the labor force until ~25" to a few centuries ago, when it would have happened at 15), aided by them spending longer in the "only interested in acquiring skills" part of 'childhood' before getting to the 'interested in sexual market dynamics' part of childhood. * Young elves and old elves are distinct in some of the ways human children and adults are distinct, but not others; the 40-year old elf who hasn't started puberty yet has had time to learn 3 different professions and build a stable independence, whereas the 12-year old human who hasn't started puberty yet is just starting to operate as an independent entity. And so sometimes
22Vaniver3moPeople's stated moral beliefs are often gradient estimates instead of object-level point estimates. This makes sense if arguments from those beliefs are pulls on the group epistemology, and not if those beliefs are guides for individual action. Saying "humans are a blight on the planet" would mean something closer to "we should be more environmentalist on the margin" instead of "all things considered, humans should be removed." You can probably imagine how this can be disorienting, and how there's a meta issue of the point estimate view is able to see what it's doing in a way that the gradient view might not be able to see what it's doing.
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