LinkSummaryDate AddedLast UpdatedName / Opening Sentence
5
lesswrong.com Citizen Model
A summary of the best suggestions from the justified practical advice thread
A summary of the best suggestions from the justified practical advice thread(EV)Mar 24Mar 23
Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary
5
docs.google.com Academic (pre-print)
Contains both links to papers and their particular estimates for various parameters, including: R0, severity, IFR, CFR, incubation period, serial interval, infectious period, hospital time, doubling time, and prevalence
Contains both links to papers and their particular estimates for various parameters, including: R0, severity, IFR, CFR, incubation period, serial interval, infectious period, hospital time, doubling time, and prevalenceMar 16Mar 15
Coronavirus epidemiological parameters
Found via lesswrong.com
5List of surfaces and disinfectants and their efficacy at killing virusesList of surfaces and disinfectants and their efficacy at killing virusesNAMar 13Mar 1
Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents
Found via lesswrong.com
4
medrxiv.org Academic (pre-print)
A correlational study looking at mortality from COVID-19 in countries, vs their use of the BGC vaccine against tuberculosis. Concludes that BCG vaccine appears protective. (Full text linked)
A correlational study looking at mortality from COVID-19 in countries, vs their use of the BGC vaccine against tuberculosis. Concludes that BCG vaccine appears protective. (Full text linked)(GW)Mar 30Mar 28
Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study
Found via lesswrong.com
4Multi-part blog post series (link to first part) with simulations of viral spread assuming that some people are isolated either randomly, or with a positive test. Part 2 looks at the fraction of the population that needs to be isolated. Part 3 looks at the effects of the false negative rate.Multi-part blog post series (link to first part) with simulations of viral spread assuming that some people are isolated either randomly, or with a positive test. Part 2 looks at the fraction of the population that needs to be isolated. Part 3 looks at the effects of the false negative rate.(GW)Mar 29Mar 25
Simulating Covid-19: Part 1&2 / Even A Bad Test Can Help Guide the Decision to Isolate: Covid Simulations Part 3
Found via facebook.com
4Really exhaustive database of 1000+ containment measures and their date in different countries and regionsReally exhaustive database of 1000+ containment measures and their date in different countries and regionsMar 26Mar 26
COVID-19 Containment measures data
4
works.bepress.com Academic (pre-print)
Only decent public expert surveys I've found on key C19 variables. He seems to publish once a week currently.
Only decent public expert surveys I've found on key C19 variables. He seems to publish once a week currently.Mar 26Mar 26
Selected Works of Thomas McAndrew
4
alhill.shinyapps.io Citizen Model
High polish visualization of multiple outcomes (spread, effect of intervention, hospital capacity..) based on inputs configurable by slider
High polish visualization of multiple outcomes (spread, effect of intervention, hospital capacity..) based on inputs configurable by slider(EV)Mar 22???
Modeling COVID-19 Spread vs Healthcare Capacity
4
docs.google.com Academic (pre-print)
Fairly substantial amount of literature covered by a Human Biology PhD. Key takeaway: "Melatonin appears to reduce exacerbated immune responses by lowering production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IFN-gamma and IL6 which are responsible for inflammation in the lung and loss of function during 'cytokine storm' a feature of COVID19. This is found in both animal studies and in human studies."
Fairly substantial amount of literature covered by a Human Biology PhD. Key takeaway: "Melatonin appears to reduce exacerbated immune responses by lowering production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IFN-gamma and IL6 which are responsible for inflammation in the lung and loss of function during 'cytokine storm' a feature of COVID19. This is found in both animal studies and in human studies."Mar 2203-22-2020
Melatonin use in Viral Infection: Literature Review
4Lots of up-to-date info and good graphics. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.Lots of up-to-date info and good graphics. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.(EV)Mar 2103-19-2020
Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak
Found via lesswrong.com
4
gabgoh.github.io Citizen Model
Visual display of outcome counts based on a highly configurable transmission model
Visual display of outcome counts based on a highly configurable transmission modelMar 16Mar 16
Epidemic Calculator
Found via facebook.com
4
ijidonline.com Academic
A collection of 25 studies with 12710 participants was examined. Out of 13 studies on respiratory illness, 4 showed statistically significant effectiveness, 1 showed statistically significant ineffectiveness, the rest produced no statistically significant results
A collection of 25 studies with 12710 participants was examined. Out of 13 studies on respiratory illness, 4 showed statistically significant effectiveness, 1 showed statistically significant ineffectiveness, the rest produced no statistically significant resultsMar 15Mar 29
Uptake and effectiveness of facemask against respiratory infections at mass gatherings: a systematic review
4A readable summary of some papers about how quickly people transmit the disease and how quickly the symptoms show. Argues that perhaps the majority of people transmit it before they show symptoms.A readable summary of some papers about how quickly people transmit the disease and how quickly the symptoms show. Argues that perhaps the majority of people transmit it before they show symptoms.Mar 14Mar 14
A Significant Portion of COVID-19 Transmission Is Presymptomatic
4Twitter thread on costs of UK's herd immunity strategy, argues that we have to give up at least one of: (1) herd immunity (2) non-overwhelmed hospitals (3) get life back to normal before next winterTwitter thread on costs of UK's herd immunity strategy, argues that we have to give up at least one of: (1) herd immunity (2) non-overwhelmed hospitals (3) get life back to normal before next winterMar 14Mar 14
Timothy Gowers: Herd immunity is very costly, and we can't get all the things we ant
4The relative prevalence of patients influenza like illnesses that test negative for influenza has been high for the past several weeks, but not extraordinarily so (< 3 standard deviations)The relative prevalence of patients influenza like illnesses that test negative for influenza has been high for the past several weeks, but not extraordinarily so (< 3 standard deviations)(EV)Mar 14Mar 13
Looking for evidence of a high burden of COVID-19 in the United States from influenza-like illness data
Found via lesswrong.com
4
weekly.chinacdc.cn Government
An analysis of all cases diagnosed in China by 2020-02-11
An analysis of all cases diagnosed in China by 2020-02-11NAMar 13Feb 17
Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)
4Left unchecked, COVID-19 will increase at a doubling time of 2-3 days. Left unchecked, COVID-19 will increase at a doubling time of 2-3 days. NAMar 13Mar 9
Bucky's growth rate of COVID-19 outbreaks
4The mean generation interval was 5.20 (95%CI 3.78-6.78) days for Singapore and 3.95 (95%CI 3.01-4.91) days for Tianjin, China when relying on a previously reported incubation period with mean 5.2 and SD 2.8 days. The proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48% (95%CI 32-67%) for Singapore and 62% (95%CI 50-76%) for Tianjin, ChinaThe mean generation interval was 5.20 (95%CI 3.78-6.78) days for Singapore and 3.95 (95%CI 3.01-4.91) days for Tianjin, China when relying on a previously reported incubation period with mean 5.2 and SD 2.8 days. The proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48% (95%CI 32-67%) for Singapore and 62% (95%CI 50-76%) for Tianjin, ChinaMar 13Mar 8
Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data
4Timothy Gowers argues that when trying to achieve herd immunity, it's both dangerous to start measures too early (because that can cause multiple waves) or too late (because that infects too many people too fast)Timothy Gowers argues that when trying to achieve herd immunity, it's both dangerous to start measures too early (because that can cause multiple waves) or too late (because that infects too many people too fast)(OH) Also make sure to read his followup tweet about how he changed his mind https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1238545657637548032?fbclid=IwAR03PmJ9JT6xr2YNc_RB92cQSR2SXry-Lhw80NM9Ejd92B2bJFHyqtNgXmcMar 13Mar 13
Timothy Gowers: It's importance to time the response correctly
Found via facebook.com
3
thezvi.wordpress.com Citizen Model
Examines the possibility that low-dose exposure to C19 leads to better outcomes than higher doses, and what the implications of that are (e.g. grandma should grocery shop for the house)
Examines the possibility that low-dose exposure to C19 leads to better outcomes than higher doses, and what the implications of that are (e.g. grandma should grocery shop for the house)(EV)Apr 1Apr 1
Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
3Study across many hospitals in Hanoi, 1607 medics were assigned to medical masks, cloth masks or normal. Cloth group had 13x the risk of medical mask groupStudy across many hospitals in Hanoi, 1607 medics were assigned to medical masks, cloth masks or normal. Cloth group had 13x the risk of medical mask group(EV)Apr 1Apr 1
A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers
Found via lesswrong.com
3
cdc.go.kr Government
Daily updates from South Korea CDC, including case counts and cluster reports
Daily updates from South Korea CDC, including case counts and cluster reports(EV)Apr 1Daily
News Room Press Release
Found via lesswrong.com
3
biorxiv.org Academic (pre-print)
ound that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory droplets
ound that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory droplets(EV) BooooooooooApr 1Mar 30
Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and different domestic animals to SARS-coronavirus-2
Found via facebook.com
3Numberphile video about the coronavirus the basis Susceptible Recovered Infected model and assoociated graphsNumberphile video about the coronavirus the basis Susceptible Recovered Infected model and assoociated graphsMar 26Mar 25
The Coronavirus Curve - Numberphile
3
stanfordmedicine.app.box.com Academic (pre-print)
A report on disinfecting N95 disposable respirators. The second half of the document is a paper with fresh results: 70C air for 30 min (good), UV 254nm@8W for 30 min (good, but light must reach all surfaces), hot steam for 10 min (significant degradation after 5-10 cycles), bleach or alcohol (destroys filtration, do not use).
A report on disinfecting N95 disposable respirators. The second half of the document is a paper with fresh results: 70C air for 30 min (good), UV 254nm@8W for 30 min (good, but light must reach all surfaces), hot steam for 10 min (significant degradation after 5-10 cycles), bleach or alcohol (destroys filtration, do not use).(GW)Mar 25Mar 25
Addressing COVID-19 Face Mask Shortages [v1.3] / Can N95 facial masks be used after disinfection? And for how many times?
3
slatestarcodex.com Unknown
They're useful but the gains may be overwhelmed by any risk compensation, and they need to be saved for medics
They're useful but the gains may be overwhelmed by any risk compensation, and they need to be saved for medics(EV) He left out a swath of studies on mask use in mass gatheringMar 24Mar 23
FACE MASKS: MUCH MORE THAN YOU WANTED TO KNOW
3
medium.com Citizen Model
Estimates C19 prevalence using data from countries that check travelers at the border
Estimates C19 prevalence using data from countries that check travelers at the border(EV)Mar 22Mar 20
Estimating Coronavirus Prevalence by Cross-Checking Countries
3
facebook.com Citizen Model
In a world where most tests are negative, you could pool samples and test them together to get results for more people
In a world where most tests are negative, you could pool samples and test them together to get results for more people(EV)Mar 22Mar 21
Here I flesh out an idea, previously discussed, for enabling very frequent covid testing at low prices even while supply is constrained using pooling.
3
medrxiv.org Academic (pre-print)
Pre-print says that those with type A blood are more likely to test positive in a hospital (implying hospitalization?) than B or AB, who are in turn more likely than those with type O. All differences were statistically signficant but modest
Pre-print says that those with type A blood are more likely to test positive in a hospital (implying hospitalization?) than B or AB, who are in turn more likely than those with type O. All differences were statistically signficant but modest(EV)Mar 22Mar 11
Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility
Found via facebook.com
3
seriouseats.com Citizen Model
Pretty thorough article on why C19 is not transmissible through food, and precauations to take around food.
Pretty thorough article on why C19 is not transmissible through food, and precauations to take around food.(EV): I am not 100% convinced on this given the digestive symptoms evidenceMar 22Mar 20
Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide
3Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.Mar 20Mar 19
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
3
youtube.com Citizen Model
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths. Based on work by Tomas Pueyo.
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths. Based on work by Tomas Pueyo.(EV): They're still only using cases that came to the attention of medical authorities, potentially missing people w/o severe symptomsMar 20Mar 14
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths
3
bloomberg.com News
Japan has ~900 cases despite being very dense and mostly continuing daily life (with the exception of the school shut down). Why?
Japan has ~900 cases despite being very dense and mostly continuing daily life (with the exception of the school shut down). Why?(EV): I wonder what their pneumonia case rate is doingMar 19Mar 19
A Coronavirus Explosion Was Expected in Japan. Where Is It?
Found via lesswrong.com
3India has only just had its 3rd C19 death. How did they do so well? Possibly aggressive border actionIndia has only just had its 3rd C19 death. How did they do so well? Possibly aggressive border action(EV): I also wonder what their pneumonia case rate is doingMar 19Mar 18
This is how India is reacting to the coronavirus pandemic
Found via lesswrong.com
3
twitter.com 1st person report
Immune response starts as soon as you're infected, but damage is a function of dose. So if your infection starts small, you will have an immune response at a lower level of infection
Immune response starts as soon as you're infected, but damage is a function of dose. So if your infection starts small, you will have an immune response at a lower level of infectionMar 18Mar 16
I’m a virologist. Public should know covid exposure dose matters.
3Lack of data of general spread and death rates means we could be off in either direction by many orders of magnitude.Lack of data of general spread and death rates means we could be off in either direction by many orders of magnitude.Mar 17Mar 17
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
Found via facebook.com
3
papers.ssrn.com Academic (pre-print)
N=105 pairs across 40 cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.
N=105 pairs across 40 cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.(EV): that seems like a pretty small N to be confident inMar 17Mar 10
High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19
Found via facebook.com
3Long doc by Stanford PhD and other researchers arguing that this has the potential as a cure, offering info (like mechanism of action) and arguing for more research. Translatd into Spanish. [UPDATE: Now taken down because of TOC violations, link goes to internet Archive]Long doc by Stanford PhD and other researchers arguing that this has the potential as a cure, offering info (like mechanism of action) and arguing for more research. Translatd into Spanish. [UPDATE: Now taken down because of TOC violations, link goes to internet Archive]Mar 16Mar 13
An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)
3"The expert epidemiological modelling that likely informed the UK Government's policy change today." - Rob Wiblin"The expert epidemiological modelling that likely informed the UK Government's policy change today." - Rob WiblinMar 16
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Found via facebook.com
3
archyde.com Government
France notes hospitalized young people have often taken common NSAIDS (except paracetamol) and recommends against it
France notes hospitalized young people have often taken common NSAIDS (except paracetamol) and recommends against it(EV) I'm really skeptical that this is a real resultMar 16Mar 14
Against Covid-19, the Minister of Health recommends not to take ibuprofen
Found via facebook.com
3In a group of 10,524 Japanese schoolchildren, masks and vaccination decreased the chance of catching influenza, gargling and handwashing increased the chanceIn a group of 10,524 Japanese schoolchildren, masks and vaccination decreased the chance of catching influenza, gargling and handwashing increased the chanceMar 15Dec 1
Effectiveness of vaccination and wearing masks on seasonal influenza in Matsumoto City, Japan, in the 2014/2015 season: An observational study among all elementary schoolchildren
3At current medical capacity, we'd need to flatten the curve for 10 years in order to get everyone full treatmentAt current medical capacity, we'd need to flatten the curve for 10 years in order to get everyone full treatmentMar 14Mar 13
“Flattening the Curve” is a deadly delusion
Found via facebook.com
3Rob Wiblin updated his spreadsheet model with new data, which suggests that we are basically dealing with unmitigated exponential growth, without any significant slowdownRob Wiblin updated his spreadsheet model with new data, which suggests that we are basically dealing with unmitigated exponential growth, without any significant slowdownMar 14Mar 14
Rob Wiblin: Model suggests we are dealing with unmitigated exponential growth
Found via facebook.com
3
arguablywrong.home.blog Citizen Model
Model of deaths at various containment levels, with the number of ICU beds assumed
Model of deaths at various containment levels, with the number of ICU beds assumed(EV) I wish I knew where he was getting his ICU number from, or that deaths were expressed as a function of ICU beds and R0, rather than having a fixed ICUMar 13Mar 10
Epidemiological modeling
3
medrxiv.org Academic (Pre-Print)
Severe weather created a natural experiment by restricting travel. This reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16% to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3% to 9%
Severe weather created a natural experiment by restricting travel. This reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16% to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3% to 9%(EV): Pretty cool natural experimentMar 13Mar 3
Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses
Found via twitter.com
3Despite the published date, only contains information through 2020-02-28. And of course the CDC's testing regiment wasn't very informaiveDespite the published date, only contains information through 2020-02-28. And of course the CDC's testing regiment wasn't very informaive(EV) Interesting for tracking the CDC but not particularly the infectionsMar 13Mar 6
Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February 2020
Found via facebook.com
3South Korea has maintained a very low fatality rate via monitoring, with no unpalatable government interventionsSouth Korea has maintained a very low fatality rate via monitoring, with no unpalatable government interventions(EV): They're using the wrong fatality calculation (Deaths/positive tests). Good monitoring might reduce spread and increase treatment, but it's biggest effect is probably inflating the denominator of the bad fatality calc.Mar 13Mar 11
Why are Korea’s Covid-19 death rates so low?
Found via discordapp.com
3Out of 3 patients in isolation rooms, 2 tested clean after being cleaned and 1 (from a patient with higher shedding) was not. PPE equipment was almost universally cleanOut of 3 patients in isolation rooms, 2 tested clean after being cleaned and 1 (from a patient with higher shedding) was not. PPE equipment was almost universally clean(EV): Very small but useful for what it isMar 13Mar 4
Air, Surface Environmental, and Personal Protective Equipment Contamination by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) From a Symptomatic Patient
3Estimates of prevalence of undocumented infections in Wuhan, and the impact of these on SC2 spreadEstimates of prevalence of undocumented infections in Wuhan, and the impact of these on SC2 spreadNAMar 13Feb 14
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
Found via facebook.com
3
tandfonline.com Academic
Estimates the comparative performance of surgical and N95 masks
Estimates the comparative performance of surgical and N95 masks(EV): This paper is really hard to readMar 13Aug 2
Effect of Particle Size on the Performance of an N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirator and a Surgical Mask at Various Breathing Conditions
Found via facebook.com
3
docs.google.com Citizen Model
Uses John Hopkin's data to extrapolate extra-china cases
Uses John Hopkin's data to extrapolate extra-china casesNAMar 13Mar 11
Wiblin's Growth modelling of COVID-19 cases outside China — Rob Wiblin
3In study of 2862 health care pros, surgical and N95 masks worked about equally well preventing influenzaIn study of 2862 health care pros, surgical and N95 masks worked about equally well preventing influenzaNAMar 13Sep 3
N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel
3Parents' self-reported mask usage was negatively correlated with catching their children's illness, but adherence was extremely lowParents' self-reported mask usage was negatively correlated with catching their children's illness, but adherence was extremely lowMar 13Feb 15
Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households
3
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Academic
Metareview of 21 studies and 25 lab reports of mask usage. Only 3 really spoke to N95 vs. surgical. N95 was better against flu-sized particles
Metareview of 21 studies and 25 lab reports of mask usage. Only 3 really spoke to N95 vs. surgical. N95 was better against flu-sized particlesMar 13Feb 1
Protecting healthcare workers from pandemic influenza: N95 or surgical masks?
3
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Academic
Testing on a dummy, various surgical masks ranged from useless to effective-but-not-a-panacea (55x reduction)
Testing on a dummy, various surgical masks ranged from useless to effective-but-not-a-panacea (55x reduction)Mar 13May 1
Effectiveness of surgical masks against influenza bioaerosols.
3
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Academic
Two dummies set up to be source and potential victim, wearing a variety of masks. Masks effectiveness was between 33% and 100% depending on conditions and seal.
Two dummies set up to be source and potential victim, wearing a variety of masks. Masks effectiveness was between 33% and 100% depending on conditions and seal.Mar 13Sep 21
Effectiveness of facemasks to reduce exposure hazards for airborne infections among general populations
3
academic.oup.com Academic
Cloth and improvised masks are better than nothing, but not very
Cloth and improvised masks are better than nothing, but not veryMar 13Jun 28
Simple Respiratory Protection—Evaluation of the Filtration Performance of Cloth Masks and Common Fabric Materials Against 20–1000 nm Size Particles
3We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. (EV): There's a bunch of problems with this. They only tested aerosol up to 3 hours. "Undetectibility times" are last time seen, not first time not seen in a sample.Mar 13Mar 10
Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
3
marginalrevolution.com Model
Mar 13Mar 11
Four puzzling coronavirus facts
Found via facebook.com
3
thelancet.com Academic (pre-print)
Study of 191 Wuhan patients finds median 20 days virus shedding, max 37. "Starting from when" you might ask? Looks like from symptoms appearing, but Bloomberg article implies it's from exposure.
Study of 191 Wuhan patients finds median 20 days virus shedding, max 37. "Starting from when" you might ask? Looks like from symptoms appearing, but Bloomberg article implies it's from exposure.Mar 13Mar 11
Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study
Found via bloomberg.com
3
getguesstimate.com Model
(EV): Very easy to readMar 13Mar 12
@jhogan42's COVID-19 Infection Estimate: SF Bay Area
3Study finds after repeated dirtying/cleaning cycles, stainless steel is cleaner than copper.Study finds after repeated dirtying/cleaning cycles, stainless steel is cleaner than copper.Mar 13Dec 1
Potential use of copper as a hygienic surface; problems associated with cumulative soiling and cleaning
Found via lesswrong.com
2Taiwan monitors via phone GPS and regular phone calls to make sure quarantined people stay home.Taiwan monitors via phone GPS and regular phone calls to make sure quarantined people stay home.(EV)Mar 29Mar 20
Taiwan's new 'electronic fence' for quarantines leads wave of virus monitoring
Found via facebook.com
2As of March 26, the US now has the most coronaviruses cases of any country in the world. The article (by Kelsey Piper) discusses some context for this (absolute vs per-capita counting, other countries with more serious undercounting of cases), history, and future plans.As of March 26, the US now has the most coronaviruses cases of any country in the world. The article (by Kelsey Piper) discusses some context for this (absolute vs per-capita counting, other countries with more serious undercounting of cases), history, and future plans.(GW)Mar 29Mar 26
The US now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than anywhere else in the world: Here’s how we got here — and what to do next.
Found via discordapp.com
2
covidsim.eu Citizen Model
Model gives you control of population count, initial conditions, infectiousness, severity, etc
Model gives you control of population count, initial conditions, infectiousness, severity, etc(EV)Mar 28???
Pandemic Preparedness Planning for COVID-19
2
nber.org Academic (pre-print)
Economist explains the basics of SIR models and how different assumptions about transmission rate translate to epidemic dynamics.
Economist explains the basics of SIR models and how different assumptions about transmission rate translate to epidemic dynamics. (EV): No economics were done in the writing of this paperMar 26Mar ??, 2020
What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
2There are lots of studies that analyze behavior interventions on coronavirus behavior. Like fighting misinformation and getting to actually engage in social distancingThere are lots of studies that analyze behavior interventions on coronavirus behavior. Like fighting misinformation and getting to actually engage in social distancingMar 26Mar 19
Near Real-Time Studies Look for Behavioral Measures Vital to Stopping Coronavirus
2Uses an SIR model and the assumption that deaths only happen in vulnerable populationsUses an SIR model and the assumption that deaths only happen in vulnerable populations(EV): That sure is an assumptionMar 25???
Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
Found via lesswrong.com
2Spreadsheet of case count and lockdown status of each American stateSpreadsheet of case count and lockdown status of each American state(EV)Mar 25Mar 22
US COVID Case Data and Lockdown Status
2
stat.berkeley.edu Academic (pre-print)
Uses hospitalization count and assumptions about growth to estimate current prevalence
Uses hospitalization count and assumptions about growth to estimate current prevalence(EV)Mar 25Mar 24
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County
Found via facebook.com
2
lesswrong.com Citizen Model
Collection of advice from LessWrong readers, with the ideal that advice must be justified by models and data
Collection of advice from LessWrong readers, with the ideal that advice must be justified by models and data(EV)Mar 24Mar 19
Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread
2(EV)Mar 24Mar 17
The Diary of a Grand Princess Crew Member as the Coronavirus Spread on the Ship
2
reddit.com Citizen Model
Simple grid visualization of the state of 2601 people an increasing number of days after C19/Smallpox is introduced in the population
Simple grid visualization of the state of 2601 people an increasing number of days after C19/Smallpox is introduced in the population(EV)Mar 22Mar 18
[OC] Covid-19 vs Smallpox Epidemic Behavior based on R0/fatality rate
2UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies's collection of documents related to C19UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies's collection of documents related to C19(EV)Mar 22???
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response
Found via facebook.com
2
chrisbillington.net Citizen Model
Physicist/software eng projects future prevalence of C19
Physicist/software eng projects future prevalence of C19(EV)Mar 22???
per capita COVID-19 cases and exponential projections by country
2An interactive tool and acompanying paper to forecast COVID-19 growth given mitigation parameters.An interactive tool and acompanying paper to forecast COVID-19 growth given mitigation parameters.Mar 19
2Social distancing and a small number of more drastic measures have the chance to reduce R0 below 1. These will need to be maintained until a vaccine is widespreadSocial distancing and a small number of more drastic measures have the chance to reduce R0 below 1. These will need to be maintained until a vaccine is widespread(EV): People claim this is the paper that made the UK reconsider its rip-off-the-bandaid planMar 18Mar 16
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
2Italian town tested and retested literally everyone and quarantined only those who tested positive (including asymptomatics), drove infection rate from 3% to 0.3%Italian town tested and retested literally everyone and quarantined only those who tested positive (including asymptomatics), drove infection rate from 3% to 0.3%Mar 18Mar 17
Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero
Found via twitter.com
2Most interesting bit in here is Table 2 with fatality rates broken down by age. There is also a lot of greographical data and visualization of trends.Most interesting bit in here is Table 2 with fatality rates broken down by age. There is also a lot of greographical data and visualization of trends.Death rates a lot lower when people actually do a lot of testing. Mar 17Mar 17
S Korea Cases and Fatality
Found via cdc.go.kr
2
sciencedaily.com News
Currently surgical and particle masks trap particles containing virus but don't actually kill it. A scientist is experimenting with salt crystals on masks that physically destroy the virus
Currently surgical and particle masks trap particles containing virus but don't actually kill it. A scientist is experimenting with salt crystals on masks that physically destroy the virusMar 17Jan 5
Innovative improvement on surgical masks will make them effective by empowering them to kill viruses
Found via facebook.com
2Analysis of deliberate systematic exposure, updating on a previous model that assumed random spread. Suggests that systematic exposure could have significant positive effects.Analysis of deliberate systematic exposure, updating on a previous model that assumed random spread. Suggests that systematic exposure could have significant positive effects.Mar 14Mar 14
Expose The Young
Found via facebook.com
2Has useful info on how to interpret R0 and other epidemiological terms. Average R0 is not enough: you need the distribution as wellHas useful info on how to interpret R0 and other epidemiological terms. Average R0 is not enough: you need the distribution as well(EV): Seems correct but I only read the abstractMar 13Feb 12
Beyond R0: the importance of contact tracing when predicting epidemics
Found via lesswrong.com
2
institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io Model
An agent based model for simulating disease spread that could (but has not yet) been adapted to SC2.
An agent based model for simulating disease spread that could (but has not yet) been adapted to SC2. Mar 13Unspecified
IDM Intro to Epidemiological Modeling
Found via facebook.com
2(Automatically updated?) prevalence data for many countries and the bay area in particular used to feed models of prevalence in the future.(Automatically updated?) prevalence data for many countries and the bay area in particular used to feed models of prevalence in the future.Mar 13Updated Daily
Eli Tyre's Coronavirus automatic tracking and population modeling v.2
Found via lesswrong.com
2Man is put in quarantine but his symptomatic wife is notMan is put in quarantine but his symptomatic wife is notMar 13Mar 8
3rd hand account of probably SC2+ person breaking quarantine
2Behind a paywallBehind a paywallMar 13Mar 6
Hong Kong’s coronavirus response leads to sharp drop in flu cases
2An individual asks why he should quarantine and it prompts a lot of discussionAn individual asks why he should quarantine and it prompts a lot of discussionMar 13Mar 12
Ben Schwyn's discussion on when and why to self-isoalte
2
facebook.com 1st person report
Discussion on several aspects of copper tape, and in particular whether you need to replace it once it tarnishes (no conclusion)
Discussion on several aspects of copper tape, and in particular whether you need to replace it once it tarnishes (no conclusion)Mar 13Mar 11
Ben Weinstein-Raun FB discussion on the longevity of copper tape
2Pasha makes some predictions for prevalence numbers in various countriesPasha makes some predictions for prevalence numbers in various countriesMar 13Mar 8
Pasha Kamyshev's Basic Coronavirus Predictions
Found via facebook.com
2Our local hospital, Evergreen, one of the top-ranked hospitals in the country and literally at ground zero in the fight against Coronavirus has run out of beds as of todazOur local hospital, Evergreen, one of the top-ranked hospitals in the country and literally at ground zero in the fight against Coronavirus has run out of beds as of todazMar 13Mar 12
Facebook post: Kirkland hospital out of ICU beds
Found via facebook.com
2Visualization tool for estimating the likelihood of containment breach and spread given various parameters of a disease. Visualization tool for estimating the likelihood of containment breach and spread given various parameters of a disease. Mar 13Unknown
EpiRisk
Found via blog.mapbox.com
2
benjaminrosshoffman.com Model
A model of when to self-isolate, based on the risks (to self only) of not and the costs of doing so
A model of when to self-isolate, based on the risks (to self only) of not and the costs of doing soMar 13Mar 10
When to Reverse Quarantine and Other COVID-19 Considerations
Found via lesswrong.com
2German =~ 1/2 French =~ 1/2 Italian. This isn't straightforward to interpret because death is a lagging indicator.German =~ 1/2 French =~ 1/2 Italian. This isn't straightforward to interpret because death is a lagging indicator.
1Evaluation of response so far and why social distancingis necessaryEvaluation of response so far and why social distancingis necessary(EV): Starts out talking about bad "save the economy" arguments, but never actually addresses themMar 28Mar 23
In last 24 hrs there've been prominent US voices calling for a stop to social distancing, citing rationale that they're worse than impact of COVID itself.
1
gov.uk Government
Guidance on preparing for and responding to an influenza pandemic.
Guidance on preparing for and responding to an influenza pandemic.Mar 16Jun 5
UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy
1
standagainstcorona.org Activism
A pledge that commits to certain actions: 20 seconds cleaning hands, covering mouth when couching/sneezing, trying to limit contact with others, emotionally care for people who isolated/vulnerable.
A pledge that commits to certain actions: 20 seconds cleaning hands, covering mouth when couching/sneezing, trying to limit contact with others, emotionally care for people who isolated/vulnerable.Mar 16
Stand Against Corona
Found via facebook.com
1Vietnam was down to 0 cases and then was massively reinfected from BritainVietnam was down to 0 cases and then was massively reinfected from BritainMar 14Mar 10
Vietnam's coronavirus cases up to 35 after new infections from Europe
1
getguesstimate.com Citizen Model
Model of deaths given various levels of intervention available
Model of deaths given various levels of intervention available(EV) Buck has retracted this model as too flawed https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RukXjEvMfqDKRJaup/what-will-be-the-big-picture-implications-of-the-coronavirus?commentId=ExMfpMPZwH36dBXznMar 13Mar 4
(RETRACTED) Buck's COVID-19 death toll
Found via lesswrong.com
1
docs.google.com Citizen Model
Simple SIR model of spread (in China, guessing by the population number)
Simple SIR model of spread (in China, guessing by the population number)(EV) Seems fineMar 13Mar 8
Isinlor's COVID-19 SIR Model
Found via lesswrong.com
1Originally suggested he shouldn't stay home until two months had passed, then one month, then a week. Originally suggested he shouldn't stay home until two months had passed, then one month, then a week. (EV) Predictions have not been born out by eventsMar 13Feb 28
(DEPRECATED) Daniel Filan's model on when to stay home from work
Found via lesswrong.com
1Guesstimate of the benefits of EA events in particular and the disease-related costs of attendanceGuesstimate of the benefits of EA events in particular and the disease-related costs of attendance(EV) Not paranoid enough for my tastesMar 13Mar 10
Linch Zhang's When to cancel events due to Coronavirus
Found via lesswrong.com
1Chance of death from C19 from going on a date with a random personChance of death from C19 from going on a date with a random person(EV) Isn't accounting for risk of permanent impairment or spreading to othersMar 13Mar 10
Lukas T's Dating during Coronavirus: What's the risk of going on a date with a random new person at the height of an outbreak?
Found via lesswrong.com
1What it says on the tinWhat it says on the tinMar 13Mar 10
Estimated risk of death by coronavirus for a healthy 30 year old male ~ 1/190
1
nejm.org Academic (pre-print)
Was thought to have demonstrated asymptomatic transmission, but when they actually talked to the carrier it turns out they had symptoms https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong
Was thought to have demonstrated asymptomatic transmission, but when they actually talked to the carrier it turns out they had symptoms https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrongMar 13Feb 6
(RETRACTED) Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
Found via microbe.tv
1No explanation in either the doc or the source so it's kind of hard to interpret. Appears to be both historical data and projectionsNo explanation in either the doc or the source so it's kind of hard to interpret. Appears to be both historical data and projectionsMar 13Unspecified
COVID-19 Italy deaths and hospitalizations estimate
1Multiple people share stories of the cost to them to WFH, some fermi estimates on the benefitsMultiple people share stories of the cost to them to WFH, some fermi estimates on the benefitsMar 13Mar 12
Anjali's thread on Fermi estimates for risk mitigation and cost thereof
1Covers a broad range of topics: some basics, some prevalence in China, some disease courseCovers a broad range of topics: some basics, some prevalence in China, some disease course(EV)Mar 12Feb 28
Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Found via --