conflict seems to be the most plausible scenario (and one which has a high prior placed on it as we can observe that much suffering today is caused by conflict), but it seems to be less and less likely of a scenario once you factor in superintelligence, as multi-polar scenarios seem to be either very short-lived or unlikely to happen at all.

This seems plausible but not obvious to me. Humans are superintelligent as compared to chimpanzees (let alone, say, Venus flytraps), but humans have still formed a multipolar civilization.

When thinking about whether s-risk scenarios are tied to or come about by similar means as x-risk scenarios (such as a malign intelligence explosion), the relevant issue to me seems to be whether or not such a scenario could result in a multi-polar conflict of cosmic proportions. I think the chance of that happening is quite low, since intelligence explosions seem to be most likely to result in a singleton.

S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them

by Kaj_Sotala 1 min read20th Jun 2017107 comments