What is the probability that induction works?

By Solomonoff induction, the hypothesis that governs the universe under the assumption that induction works has less complexity penalty than one that counts to a number on the order of 10^80 to 10^18000 steps while the universe is running and then starts working differently by a factor of about 10^17 (since that's how many turing machines with 6 states there are, which is the number of states you need to count to that sort of number of steps), so the probability that induction works can be given an upper bound of about 1-10^-17.

0torekp3yShouldn't a particular method of inductive reasoning be specified in order to give the question substance?

Stupid Questions September 2017

by Erfeyah 1 min read15th Sep 201727 comments

2


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