I think the model uses a much shorter time for active infections than 2.5 weeks. Not sure what it is, but I think it's closer to 5 days or something like that, which seems to actually fit the behavior of the disease best, on a broad scale. 

Agree that it looks weird. I've asked the authors of the project to add a cumulative graph, which makes these assumptions a lot clearer.

March 24th: Daily Coronavirus Link Updates

by habryka, Ben Pace 1 min read26th Mar 20206 comments


As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 24th), by topic.

You can find the full database here: https://www.lesswrong.com/coronavirus-link-database


Dashboard with estimates and predictions of true prevalence

A dashboard that gives you estimates for current prevalence by country, as well as predictions for the future based on varying amounts of mitigation.


What will the economic effects of quarantine be?

LW attempts to predict what the effects of a short or long quarantine will be

Medical System

Flexport CEO explains why scaling PPE is hard

Outlines the difficulties in scaling, including QA and legal issues


Stories of C19 layoffs

Reddit thread of people who lost their jobs due to coronavirus or quarantine

Spread & Prevention

Review of mask efficacy

They're useful but the gains may be overwhelmed by any risk compensation, and they need to be saved for medics

(EV) He left out a swath of studies on mask use in mass gathering

LW Advice Summary

A summary of the best suggestions from the justified practical advice thread

Work & Donate

LessWrong C19 Agenda

A list of questions we want answered to inform future decisions, and assembly of answers as they're created