On the betting market PredictIt you can by a contract for 38 cents that pays $1 if the Democratic party doesn't win the next U.S. presidential election. This seems like an amazingly good bet. (I have 1158 shares) Do others who follow U.S. politics agree that the chance of the Democrats not winning the election is well above 38%?

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I think that it is worth mentioning that those are also the numbers extracted from Betfair, which has much higher volume, though is not available to Americans.

Is that bet actually available from small volume PredictIt? The bid-ask spread looks small, but are there hidden transaction costs? Why do the three "sell yes" numbers add up to more than $1?

-3[anonymous]4yConsider that 1 major democratic party candidate isn't technically from the democratic party. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. You're taking the 'suckers bet'. Market makers are generally better informed than other participants. Unless you have private knowledge, or are gambler, it's probably not a good idea to make these kinds of bets.
1[anonymous]4yI'd say the odds right now of either party winning are roughly 50-50.

Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016

by Elo 1 min read8th Feb 2016224 comments


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