An interesting discussion -- in the comments -- about meta-uncertainty or probabilities of probabilities. I say it's turtles all the way down :-)

Sometimes they come back...
I'm a sucker for Jaynes, and I still think that Ap distributions are a much more solid contribution to the subject than any philosophical discussion of Knightian uncertainty or partition of the data, especially when you interpret Ap to be "the probability of retrieving a piece of evidence that will set P(A) = p".

0Manfred4yDunno, seems like Gelman is pretty correct to me. Which is to say, there are a finite number of turtles determined by the complexity of your model.

Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016

by Elo 1 min read8th Feb 2016224 comments


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