Well, sure if WalterL exists in a complete island and has no interest in getting other humans to pay attention to your predictions about the world then 1 doesn't terribly matter. As for 2, this seems to be essentially an ignorance-is-bliss argument which if you are convinced of, I'm not sure why you are on LW at all. Moreover, it isn't likely to be true: being overconfident can cause real harm- it makes one more likely to make decisions that one shouldn't (for example: if you are overconfident in your investment ability, then you will actually lose money). 3) Seems to fall into a general value difference: services like PredictionBook are for people who want to know that they are actually modeling the world better. If you have to actively put blinders on to convince yourself you have a good model of the world, and you are ok with that, then there's really not much to say. But then why are you even here?

Let me try and restate.

Instead of "why don't you use predictionbook", lets imagine that the question was "why don't you use a chinup bar". My answer is basically the same.

I'm not trying to improve what this tool improves, my arms/brain is strong enough for my purposes, and I'm not trying to go beyond those.

Open thread, Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2014

by Gondolinian 1 min read15th Dec 2014309 comments

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