Three reasons. 1) Other people can also see your predictions and see if your predictions are worth paying attention to. 2) It helps you become less overconfident. 3) If you keep mispredicting in some specific category then you realize you need to rethink your basic premises about that area.

Sure, but:

1) Who cares what other people think? Why should I help them if I have good predictions, or hurt them if I don't? I don't feel their joy or pain. I could see the necessity if I was receiving scorn, but I'm generally respected. Why try to adjust that? 2) Confidence makes happiness, right? I'm generally confident. Some part of that probably isn't deserved. Why find out? 3) I don't though, or if I do I don't know about it. Why find out? I'd be distressed.

Open thread, Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2014

by Gondolinian 1 min read15th Dec 2014309 comments


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