But what is the uncertainty on the probability itself?

Let's see; in this post is a link to this spreadsheet, which gives various people's estimates, and, unless you have any better data to use, can serve as an overall initial 'wisdom of the crowds' estimate along the lines of a futures prediction market. The predicted odds of success are one in 3, 4, 15, somewhere from 7 to 435, and 1010; for a naive average of 1 in 250, or about 0.4%.

Do you have any reason to believe that you will be able to acquire a more accurate estimate at any time in the near future?

Note that most of these are exactly the kind of made up numbers I was talking about in my previous comment. You can't start with guesses that show a variance within the first decimal figure and end up with an estimate with a supposed three or four significant figures.

I don't see much value in these kind of calculations other than the simple realization that cryonics succes is an higly conjunctive event, the more failure modes you consider, the lower the probabilty of succes. Thus, the actual probability is going to be quite low.

Unless someone provides a c... (read more)

Finally Ending My Cryo-Crastination

by DataPacRat 1 min read24th Sep 201244 comments


I've finally decided to take the plunge and make the arrangements for my eventual cryonic preservation. To help myself make sure that I actually follow through with everything necessary, I'm publicly pre-committing myself here to accomplish that.


As initial evidence that I'm actually serious about doing this, I've sent an email to The Cryonics Institute today, whose contents were as follows:

I have decided to finally stop procrastinating and make the necessary arrangements for my eventual cryonic preservation, and I have chosen CI to make those arrangements with.

I have looked through your membership pages and online sample forms, and I believe that I can work through my end of the paperwork without any real trouble, although I would still appreciate any advice you have to offer. For example, I live in Canada, about an hour's drive from Toronto, which might affect which forms are necessary.

Before I send my initial payment, I would at least like to confirm the basic details, and let you know who the money is coming from. It appears that, to start things off, I can Paypal you USD $110, for the yearly membership fee plus the first quarter's dues; after which I would mail you a physical, signed copy of the yearly membership application. After that, there will be a variety of documents to sign and have witnessed; and the insurance plan to arrange for. Is that a reasonable summary?

For the life insurance, I am thinking of a 20-year term policy with RBC (Royal Bank of Canada). Have you had any dealings with them previously, to know whether or not there will be any problems in setting the Cryonics Institute as the beneficiary? Do you have any recommendations about how large a benefit in excess of the basic USD $35,000 amount the policy should pay out, such as to cover currency-exchange fluctuations or the 'local help' rider?

Is there anything else you would recommend be discussed before I make that initial payment and set the ball in motion?