Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

1wedrifid8yI want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.
19gwern8y90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html] . (Also, existing prediction [http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452].)

New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)

by gwern 1 min read1st Jan 2012340 comments


Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.

Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.

As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.

(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)