Michael Shellenberger’s Public today released a blockbuster story, “First Person Sickened By COVID-19 Was Chinese Scientist Who Oversaw “Gain Of Function” Research That Created Virus,” which generously credits Racket. The story cites three government officials in naming scientist Ben Hu, who was in charge of “gain-of-function” research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as the “patient zero” of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The secrets of both the pandemic’s origin and the reason for America’s at-best-sluggish investigation of same have become the mother of all political footballs, and today’s news is likely to be just the first in a series of loud surprises.
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Numerous federal agencies appear to have designed their probes of Covid-19’s origins so as to discount the possibility of lab origin in advance.
We were told, for instance, that despite longstanding interest in the Wuhan Institute as a potential security concern, at least one intelligence agency overruled a majority of its in-house investigators to produce a report on the pandemic’s origin discounting the lab-leak hypothesis.
Two years ago I wrote on LessWrong that my likelihood for the lab leak hypothesis 99% hypothesis. Given that updating on evidence is important I think I'm warranted to update to 99.9%.
I was wrong when I expected that the truth comes out sooner because I underrate the extent to which the intelligence community will try to mislead the public. In retrospect, that seems like a stupid mistake. Nevertheless, we seem now at the point where the public evidence will force more organizations to change their assessments.
We might also come into the phase where the press will start to focus on how the lab leak theory was suppressed.
Isn't 99.9% confident in this pretty extreme? If a thousand of randomly selected similar cases came out, 999 of them would be lab leaks and only one would involve investigators missing something?
Investigators always miss something and we are likely going to find more information in the future.
That doesn't change the fact that we have overwhelming evidence.
If you look at the article in Public, it makes the case: We know that the people at the WIV put a Furin cleavage side via gain-of-function modification into a Coronaviruses and we know that they did their research without the safety precautions that you would need and we know that one of the first patients was one of the people wo... (read more)