I think I agree with you. There's a lot of messiness with using and often I'm sure that this approximation leads to decision errors in many real cases. I'd also agree that better approximations of would be costly and are often not worth the effort.

Similar to how there's a term for "Expected value of perfect information", there could be an equivalent for the expected value of a utility function, even outside of uncertainty of parameterized that were thought to be included. Really, there could be calculations for "expected benefit from improvements to a model", though of course this would be difficult to parameterize (how would you declare that a model has been changed a lot vs. a little? If I introduce 2 new parameters, but these parameters aren't that important, then how big of a deal should this be considered in expectation?)

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments