I think this could be a good example for what I'm getting at. I think there are definitely some people in some situations who can distinguish a p=0.00004 event from a p=0.00008 event. How? By making a Fermi model or similar.

A trivial example would be a lottery with calculable odds of success. Just because the odds are low doesn't mean they can't be precisely estimated.

I expect that the kinds of problems that GPOpen would consider asking AND are incredibly unlikely, would be difficult to estimate within 1 order of magnitude. But may still be able to do a decent job, especially in cases where you can make neat Fermi models.

However, of course, it seems very silly to use the incentive mechanism "you'll get paid once we know for sure if the event happened" on such an event. Instead, if resolutions are done with evaluators, then there is much more of a signal.

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments