## LESSWRONGLW

One nice thing about adjustments is that they can be applied to many forecasts. Like, I can estimate the adjustment for someone's [list of 500 forecasts] without having to look at each one.

Over time, I assume that there would be heuristics for adjustments, like, "Oh, people of this reference class typically get a +20% adjustment", similar to margins of error in engineering.

That said, these are my assumptions, I'm not sure what forecasters will find to be the best in practice.