One nice thing about adjustments is that they can be applied to many forecasts. Like, I can estimate the adjustment for someone's [list of 500 forecasts] without having to look at each one.

Over time, I assume that there would be heuristics for adjustments, like, "Oh, people of this reference class typically get a +20% adjustment", similar to margins of error in engineering.

That said, these are my assumptions, I'm not sure what forecasters will find to be the best in practice.

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments