How? By making a Fermi model or similar.

I'm fairly skeptical of this. From a conceptual perspective, we expect the tails to be dominated by unknown unknowns and black swans. Fermi estimates and other modelling tools are much better at estimating scenarios that we expect. Whereas, if we find ourselves in the extreme tails, its often because of events or factors that we failed to model.

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments