I think that prediction markets can help us select better proxies, but the initial set up (at least) will require people pretty clever with ontologies.

For example, say a group comes up with 20 proposals for specific ways of answering the question, "How much value has this organization created?". A prediction market could predict the outcome of the effectiveness of each proposal.

I'd hope that over time people would put together lists of "best" techniques to formalize questions like this, so doing it for many new situations would be quite straightforward.

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments