I don't think it's only the first. It seems weird to me imagine telling to a group that "There's a 20% probability that X will occur" if I really have little idea and would guess many of them would have a better sense than me. I would only personally feel comfortable doing this if I was quite sure my information was quite a bit better than theirs. Else, I'd say something like, "I personally think there's a 20% chance, but I really don't have much information."

ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments