My statement itself isn't something I believe with certainty, but adding that qualifier to everything I say would be a pointless hassle, especially for things that I believe with a near-enough certainty that my mind feels it is certain. The part with the "ALL" is itself a part of the statement I believe with near certainty, not a qualifier of the statement I believe. Sorry I didn't make that clearer.

OK, and appropriate when writing on LW. But I wonder if part of the reason most people don't think of "beliefs being probabilities on a continuum" is that even statistically literate people don't usually bother qualifying statements that if taken literally would mean they held some belief with probability 1.

If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be?

by enfascination 1 min read22nd Feb 201667 comments

3


Alternatively, what single concept from statistics would most improve people's interpretations of popular news and daily life events?