If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I’d try to sell you my chance for 349 thousand dollars.

I'd try to find out what my chance of winning really was, before attempting to trade.

1NihilCredo8yI'd first look for a multi-millionaire to whom to make the offer.
1jmmcd8yI'd undercut you! Sub-linear utility and all that.

Quote on Nate Silver, and how to think about probabilities

by ChrisHallquist 1 min read2nd Nov 201224 comments

7


From Ezra Klein:

If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesn’t mean Silver’s model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. That’s a pretty good chance! If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I’d be excited. And if I won the money, I wouldn’t turn around and tell you your information was wrong. I’d still have no evidence I’d ever had anything more than a 35 percent chance.

Okay, technically, winning the money would be very weak Bayesian evidence that the initial probability estimate was wrong. Still a very good quote.