What does "have to make a decision" mean when "all options are false"?

Are you thinking about the situation when you have, say, 10 alternatives with the probabilities of 10% each except for two, one at 11% and one at 9%? None of them are "true" or "false", you don't know that. What you probably mean is that even the best option, the 11% alternative, is more likely to be false than true. Yes, but so what? If you have to pick one, you pick the RELATIVE best and if its probability doesn't cross the 50% threshold, well, them's the breaks.


Yes that is exactly what I'm getting at. It doesn't seem reasonable to say you've confirmed the 11% alternative. But then there's another problem, what if you have to make this decision multiple times? Do you throw out the other alternatives and only focus on the 11%? That would lead to status quo bias. So you have to keep the other alternatives in mind, but what do you do with them? Would you then say you've confirmed those other alternatives? This is where the necessity of something like falsification comes into play. You've got to continue analy... (read more)

Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015

by MrMind 1 min read21st Dec 2015233 comments


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