[anonymous]5y0

Yes that is exactly what I'm getting at. It doesn't seem reasonable to say you've confirmed the 11% alternative. But then there's another problem, what if you have to make this decision multiple times? Do you throw out the other alternatives and only focus on the 11%? That would lead to status quo bias. So you have to keep the other alternatives in mind, but what do you do with them? Would you then say you've confirmed those other alternatives? This is where the necessity of something like falsification comes into play. You've got to continue analyzing multiple options as new evidence comes in, but trying to analyze all the alternatives is too difficult, so you need a way to throw out certain alternatives, but you never actually confirm any of them. These problems come up all the time in day to day decision making such as deciding on what's for dinner tonight.

It doesn't seem reasonable to say you've confirmed the 11% alternative.

In the context of the Bayesian confirmation theory, it's not you who "confirms" the hypothesis. It's evidence which confirms some hypothesis and that happens at the prior -> posterior stage. Once you're dealing with posteriors, all the confirmation has already been done.

what if you have to make this decision multiple times?

Do you get any evidence to update your posteriors? Is there any benefit to picking different alternatives? If no and no, then sure, you repeat you... (read more)

0gjm5yAll you have to do is not simultaneously use "confirm" to mean both "increase the probability of" and "assign high probability to". As for throwing out unlikely possibilities to save on computation: that (or some other shortcut) is sometimes necessary but it's an entirely separate matter from Bayesian confirmation theory or indeed Popperian falsificationism. (Popper just says to rule things out when you've disproved them. In your example, you have a bunch of things near to 10% and Popper gives you no licence to throw any of them out.

Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015

by MrMind 1 min read21st Dec 2015233 comments

2


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