It doesn't seem reasonable to say you've confirmed the 11% alternative.

In the context of the Bayesian confirmation theory, it's not you who "confirms" the hypothesis. It's evidence which confirms some hypothesis and that happens at the prior -> posterior stage. Once you're dealing with posteriors, all the confirmation has already been done.

what if you have to make this decision multiple times?

Do you get any evidence to update your posteriors? Is there any benefit to picking different alternatives? If no and no, then sure, you repeat your decision.

That would lead to status quo bias.

No, it would not. That's not what the status quo bias is.

You keep on using words without understanding their meaning. This is a really bad habit.


When I say throw out I'm talking about halting tests, not changing the decision.

Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015

by MrMind 1 min read21st Dec 2015233 comments


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