A major weakness

Where did you get this from? Maintaining beliefs over an entire space of possible solutions is a strength of the Bayesian approach. Please don't talk about Bayesian inference after reading a single thing about updating beliefs on whether a coin is fair or not. That's just a simple tutorial example.


If I have 3 options, A, B, and C, and I'm 40% certain the best option is A, 30% certain the best option is B, and 30% certain the best option is C, would it be correct to say that I've confirmed option A instead of say my best evidence suggests A? This can sort of be corrected for with the standard Bayesian confirmation model, but the problem becomes larger as the number of possibilities increases to the point where you can't get a good read on your own certainty, or to the point where the number of possibilities is unknown.

Open thread, Dec. 21 - Dec. 27, 2015

by MrMind 1 min read21st Dec 2015233 comments


If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

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