By looking at the genderless conditional probability ('somebody'), you're implying that women like Knox might have male-like murder levels, which is obviously wrong.

No, male-like murder levels would be higher than genderless murder levels. And, if I understand correctly, most of the excess male murder rate involves gang-related violence, which in this case was pretty clearly not involved.

Anyway, I agree that if you are doing pure Bayesian inference you have to condition on all kinds of available evidence, including gender, race, social class, nationalit... (read more)

No, male-like murder levels would be higher than genderless murder levels.

...and what do you think that implies about whether female murder levels are lower as I claimed?

And, if I understand correctly, most of the excess male murder rate involves gang-related violence, which in this case was pretty clearly not involved.

Yeah, no. Think about that a little bit. (Also, please note the irony of responding to criticism about not conditioning by claiming it would be neutralized by further conditioning.)

3Douglas_Knight5yNo, the male murder excess rate is not gang-related. Why would you think so?

[LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated

by fortyeridania 1 min read28th Mar 201558 comments

9


Here are the New York Times, CNN, and NBC. Here is Wikipedia for background.

The case has made several appearances on LessWrong; examples include: