That's still base-rate neglect as you are picking and choosing what you want to look at and not conditioning on one of the more relevant variables.

What fraction of the pretty girls who lived with the victims turned out to be murderers? By looking at the genderless conditional probability ('somebody'), you're implying that women like Knox might have male-like murder levels, which is obviously wrong. And to the extent that pretty girls do not have differing patterns of murdering roommates from other women, you're making the exact same mistake, even (it does... (read more)

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extent that pretty girls do not have differing patterns of murdering roommates from other women, you're making the exact same mistake

That's an interesting claim. Do you have a source for "pretty girls are less likely to murder than girls who aren't pretty?"

5Epictetus5yLow compared to what? For someone murdered at home in the dead of night, the dominant probabilities are that either the murderer was invited in or lived there. Roommates merit investigation. If the evidence clears spouses/lovers and close family, then the probability of it being a roommate goes up considerably. Being female is not going to lower the probability enough to eschew a thorough investigation. What saves Amanda Knox in this case isn't being female, but rather evidence that someone else committed the crime, as well as the lack of physical evidence of her involvement or any paper trail pointing to a conspiracy.
5Jiro5yIsn't this also confounded by the fact that judges and juries like to go easy on women, so that women who do commit murder are less likely to be convicted? It may be that measures of what fraction of women are convicted of murder are not the same as what fraction of women are actually murderers.

[LINK] Amanda Knox exonerated

by fortyeridania 1 min read28th Mar 201558 comments

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Here are the New York Times, CNN, and NBC. Here is Wikipedia for background.

The case has made several appearances on LessWrong; examples include: