I think 50% is a reasonable belief given the very limited grasp of the problem we have.

Most of the weight on success comes from FAI being quite easy, and all of the many worries expressed on this site not being realistic. Some of the weight for success comes from a concerted effort to solve hard problems.

What Are The Chances of Actually Achieving FAI?

by Bound_up 1 min read25th Jul 201714 comments

2


I get that the shut up and multiply calculation will make it worth trying even if the odds are really low, but my emotions don't respond very well to low odds.

I can override that to some degree, but, at the end of the day, it'd be easier if the odds were actually pretty decent.

Comment or PM me, it's not something I've heard much about.