Today I watched a friend do calibration practice and was reminded of how wide you have to cast your net to get well-calibrated 90% confidence. This is true even when the questions aren't gotchas, just because you won't think of all the ways something could be wildly unlike your quick estimate's model. Being well-calibrated for 90% confidence intervals (even though this doesn't sound all that confident!) requires giving lots of room even in questions you really do know pretty well, because you will feel like you really do know pretty well when in fact you're missing something that wrecks you by an order of magnitude.
Being miscalibrated can feel like "if it were outside of this range, I have just... no explanation for that" - and then it turns out there's a completely reasonable explanation.
Anyway, I thought a fun exercise would be describing weird situations we've encountered that turned out to have reasonable explanations. In initial descriptions, present only the information you (and whoever was thinking it over with you) remembered to consider at the time, then follow up in ROT-13 with what made the actual sequence of events come clear.
I had a similar one to that, where I completely overwrote my actual memory of what happened with what habit said should have happened, where I went to get my bike from the garage and it was not there. But I clearly remembered having stored it in the garage the day prior.
Spoiler: I hadn't. I'd gone to the store on the way back, left the bike locked in front of the store, then (since I almost always go to the store on foot) walked home. My brain internally rewrote this as "rode home, [stored bike, went to the store], went home." (The [] part did not happen.)
Memory is weird, especially if your experience is normally highly compressible.