Today I watched a friend do calibration practice and was reminded of how wide you have to cast your net to get well-calibrated 90% confidence. This is true even when the questions aren't gotchas, just because you won't think of all the ways something could be wildly unlike your quick estimate's model. Being well-calibrated for 90% confidence intervals (even though this doesn't sound all that confident!) requires giving lots of room even in questions you really do know pretty well, because you will feel like you really do know pretty well when in fact you're missing something that wrecks you by an order of magnitude.
Being miscalibrated can feel like "if it were outside of this range, I have just... no explanation for that" - and then it turns out there's a completely reasonable explanation.
Anyway, I thought a fun exercise would be describing weird situations we've encountered that turned out to have reasonable explanations. In initial descriptions, present only the information you (and whoever was thinking it over with you) remembered to consider at the time, then follow up in ROT-13 with what made the actual sequence of events come clear.
I'll start.
A few years ago, I received a hand-addressed package with my correct name and address on it; the return address was a completely unfamiliar name in a state I've never visited and have no friends in. The contents were three Asterix books in the original French which I had no use for, did not know of anyone who wanted, and could not in fact read.
N sevraq unq hfrq obbx-fjnccvat jrofvgr Obbxzbbpu gb trg zr fbzr cerfragf n juvyr cerivbhfyl naq unqa'g erzrzorerq gb hcqngr gur nqqerff jura trggvat gurfr sbe ure uhfonaq.
There's a question of specificity too - you could make a high-confidence prediction that guvf cnpxntr jnf frag gb lbh qhr gb na reebe, abg vagragvbanyyl but there was a very wide possibility space for jub znqr jung xvaq bs reebe.
The idea of confidence levels only works at fairly high abstractions of predictions. Nobody is 90% confident of extremely precise predictions, only of predictions that will cover a large amount (90%, in fact) of near-infinite variety of future states of the universe.