You asked about emotional stuff so here is my perspective. I have extremely weird feelings about this whole forum that may affect my writing style. My view is constantly popping back and forth between different views, like in the rabbit-duck gestalt image. On one hand I often see interesting and very good arguments, but on the other hand I see tons of red flags popping up. I feel that I need to maintain extreme mental efforts to stay "sane" here. Maybe I should refrain from commenting. It's a pity because I'm generally very interested in the topics discussed here, but the tone and the underlying ideology is pushing me away. On the other hand I feel an urge to check out the posts despite this effect. I'm not sure what aspect of certain forums have this psychological effect on my thinking, but I've felt it on various reddit communities as well.

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My view is constantly popping back and forth between different views

That sounds like you engage in binary thinking and don't value shades of grey of uncertainty enough. You feel to need to judge arguments for whether they are true or aren't and don't have mental categories for "might be true, or might not be true".

Jonah makes strong claims for which he doesn't provide evidence. He's clear about the fact that he hasn't provided the necessary evidence.

Given that you pattern match to "crackpot" instead of putting Jonah in the mental cat... (read more)

6[anonymous]5ySeconded, actually, and it's particular to LessWrong. I know I often joke that posting here gets treated as submitting academic material and skewered accordingly, but that is very much what it feels like from the inside. It feels like confronting a hostile crowd of, as Jonah put it, radical agnostics, every single time one posts, and they're waiting for you to say something so they can jump down your throat about it. Oh, and then you run into the issue of having radically different priors and beliefs, so that you find yourself on a "rationality" site where someone is suddenly using the term "global warming believer" as though the IPCC never issued multiple reports full of statistical evidence. I mean, sure, I can put some probability on, "It's all a conspiracy and the official scientists are lying", but for me that's in the "nonsense zone" -- I actually take offense to being asked to justify my belief in mainstream science. As much as "good Bayesians" are never supposed to agree to disagree, I would very much like if people would be up-front about their priors and beliefs, so that we can both decide whether it's worth the energy spent on long threads of trying to convince people of things.
3JonahS5yThanks so much for sharing. I'm astonished by how much more fruitful my relationships have became since I've started asking. I think that a lot of what you're seeing is a cultural clash: different communities have different blindspots and norms for communication, and a lot of times the combination of (i) blindspots of the communities that one is familiar with and (ii) respects in which a new community actually is unsound can give one the impression "these people are beyond the pale!" when the actual situation is that they're no less rational than members of one's own communities. I had a very similar experience to your own coming from academia, and wrote a post titled The Importance of Self-Doubt [] in which I raised the concern that Less Wrong was functioning as a cult. But since then I've realized that a lot of the apparently weird beliefs on LWers are in fact also believed by very credible people: for example, Bill Gates recently expressed [] serious concern about AI risk. If you're new to the community, you're probably unfamiliar with my own credentials which should reassure you somewhat: * I did a PhD in pure math under the direction of Nathan Dunfield [], who coauthored papers with Bill Thurston, who formulated the geometrization conjecture which Perelman proved and in doing so won one of the Clay Millennium Problems []. * I've been deeply involved with math education for highly gifted children for many years. I worked with the person who won the American Math Society prize for best undergraduate research when he was 12. * I worked at GiveWell [], which partners with with Good Ventures, Dustin Moskovitz's foundation. * I've done fullstack web development, making an asynchronous cl

Beyond Statistics 101

by JonahS 2 min read26th Jun 2015132 comments


Is statistics beyond introductory statistics important for general reasoning?

Ideas such as regression to the mean, that correlation does not imply causation and base rate fallacy are very important for reasoning about the world in general. One gets these from a deep understanding of statistics 101, and the basics of the Bayesian statistical paradigm. Up until one year ago, I was under the impression that more advanced statistics is technical elaboration that doesn't offer major additional insights  into thinking about the world in general.

Nothing could be further from the truth: ideas from advanced statistics are essential for reasoning about the world, even on a day-to-day level. In hindsight my prior belief seems very naive – as far as I can tell, my only reason for holding it is that I hadn't heard anyone say otherwise. But I hadn't actually looked advanced statistics to see whether or not my impression was justified :D.

Since then, I've learned some advanced statistics and machine learning, and the ideas that I've learned have radically altered my worldview. The "official" prerequisites for this material are calculus, differential multivariable calculus, and linear algebra. But one doesn't actually need to have detailed knowledge of these to understand ideas from advanced statistics well enough to benefit from them. The problem is pedagogical: I need to figure out how how to communicate them in an accessible way.

Advanced statistics enables one to reach nonobvious conclusions

To give a bird's eye view of the perspective that I've arrived at, in practice, the ideas from "basic" statistics are generally useful primarily for disproving hypotheses. This pushes in the direction of a state of radical agnosticism: the idea that one can't really know anything for sure about lots of important questions. More advanced statistics enables one to become justifiably confident in nonobvious conclusions, often even in the absence of formal evidence coming from the standard scientific practice.

IQ research and PCA as a case study

In the early 20th century, the psychologist and statistician Charles Spearman discovered the the g-factor, which is what IQ tests are designed to measure. The g-factor is one of the most powerful constructs that's come out of psychology research. There are many factors that played a role in enabling Bill Gates ability to save perhaps millions of lives, but one of the most salient factors is his IQ being in the top ~1% of his class at Harvard. IQ research helped the Gates Foundation to recognize iodine supplementation as a nutritional intervention that would improve socioeconomic prospects for children in the developing world.

The work of Spearman and his successors on IQ constitute one of the pinnacles of achievement in the social sciences. But while Spearman's discovery of IQ was a great discovery, it wasn't his greatest discovery. His greatest discovery was a discovery about how to do social science research. He pioneered the use of factor analysis, a close relative of principal component analysis (PCA).

The philosophy of dimensionality reduction

PCA is a dimensionality reduction method. Real world data often has the surprising property of "dimensionality reduction":  a small number of latent variables explain a large fraction of the variance in data.

This is related to the effectiveness of Occam's razor: it turns out to be possible to describe a surprisingly large amount of what we see around us in terms of a small number of variables. Only, the variables that explain a lot usually aren't the variables that are immediately visibleinstead they're hidden from us, and in order to model reality, we need to discover them, which is the function that PCA serves. The small number of variables that drive a large fraction of variance in data can be thought of as a sort of "backbone" of the data. That enables one to understand the data at a "macro /  big picture / structural" level.

This is a very long story that will take a long time to flesh out, and doing so is one of my main goals.