Therefore, P(Sentient Aliens or Simulation) and P(You are a Boltzmann Brain) move in opposite directions when updated with new evidence.

If those are the only two possibilities then of course they do. A complete set of probabilities must sum to 1 and so P(Aliens) is simply (1 - P(Bolzmann)).

Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

by MrMind 1 min read25th Jul 2016133 comments

3


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