Rationalists often presume that it is possible to do much better than average by applying a small amount of optimization power. This is true in many domains, but can get you in trouble in certain places (see: the valley of bad rationality).

Rationalists often fail to compartmentalize, even when it would be highly useful.

Rationalists are often overconfident (see: SSC calibration questions) but believe they are well calibrated (bias blind spot, also just knowing about a bias is not enough to unbias you)

Rationalists don't even lift bro.

Rationalists often fail ... (read more)

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Ratiionalists stil have too much trust in scientific studies, especially psychological studies.

1Unnamed4yIf you're referring to the calibration questions on the 2014 LW survey [http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/], rationalists were pretty well calibrated on them (though a bit overconfident). I described some analyses of the data here [http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/btmt] and here [http://lesswrong.com/lw/mjd/open_thread_jul_27_aug_02_2015/cm12], and here's a picture: (where the amount of overconfidence is shown by how far the blue dots are below the black line) I don't know of any data on whether rationalists believe they are well calibrated on these sorts of questions - I suspect that a fair number of people would guess that they are overconfident.
3Elo4yMany do. http://thefutureprimaeval.net/why-we-even-lift/ [http://thefutureprimaeval.net/why-we-even-lift/]

Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

by MrMind 1 min read25th Jul 2016133 comments


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