Rationalists often presume that it is possible to do much better than average by applying a small amount of optimization power. This is true in many domains, but can get you in trouble in certain places (see: the valley of bad rationality).

Rationalists often fail to compartmentalize, even when it would be highly useful.

Rationalists are often overconfident (see: SSC calibration questions) but believe they are well calibrated (bias blind spot, also just knowing about a bias is not enough to unbias you)

Rationalists don't even lift bro.

Rationalists often fail ... (read more)

Showing 3 of 4 replies (Click to show all)

Ratiionalists stil have too much trust in scientific studies, especially psychological studies.

1Unnamed4yIf you're referring to the calibration questions on the 2014 LW survey [http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/], rationalists were pretty well calibrated on them (though a bit overconfident). I described some analyses of the data here [http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/btmt] and here [http://lesswrong.com/lw/mjd/open_thread_jul_27_aug_02_2015/cm12], and here's a picture: (where the amount of overconfidence is shown by how far the blue dots are below the black line) I don't know of any data on whether rationalists believe they are well calibrated on these sorts of questions - I suspect that a fair number of people would guess that they are overconfident.
3Elo4yMany do. http://thefutureprimaeval.net/why-we-even-lift/ [http://thefutureprimaeval.net/why-we-even-lift/]

Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

by MrMind 1 min read25th Jul 2016133 comments

3


If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.


Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

4. Unflag the two options "Notify me of new top level comments on this article" and "