Empricially Superforcasters don't simply try to follow a chain of logic to get their beliefs.

Neither do bad forecasters, or cranks, or schizophrenics. The suppressed premiss here is that superforcasters are right or reliable. But that implies that their claims are tested or testable and that implies some basic presumptions of logic or empricism.

Tedlock lays out a bunch of principles to come to correct conclusions. One of the principles is being a fox that uses multiple chains instead of trying to use one correct chain that rests on a foundation based on which other beliefs can be logically deduced.

The paradigm that Arielgenesis proposes is to follow a hedgehog system where a single chain of logic can be relied on because certain basic presuppositions are accepted as true.

But that implies that their claims are tested or testable and that implies some basic presumptions of logic or empricism.

H... (read more)

Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

by MrMind 1 min read25th Jul 2016133 comments

3


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