Now I am not making any statement about rationality or presuppositionalism, but it seems to me that there is a logical veil that we cannot get to the bottom of and it is called self-reference.

That assumes that a rational person is one who holds beliefs because of a chain of logic. Empricially Superforcasters don't simply try to follow a chain of logic to get their beliefs. A rational person in the LW sense thus is not one that holds beliefs because of a chain of logic.

Tedlock gives in his book a good outlook about how to form beliefs about the likelihood that beliefs are true.

Empricially Superforcasters don't simply try to follow a chain of logic to get their beliefs.

Neither do bad forecasters, or cranks, or schizophrenics. The suppressed premiss here is that superforcasters are right or reliable. But that implies that their claims are tested or testable and that implies some basic presumptions of logic or empricism.

Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

by MrMind 1 min read25th Jul 2016133 comments

3


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