I think it's probably false if you treat it as the claim that every person who's highly confident that an event happens has constructed a coherent story in his mind.

On the other hand that reading doesn't seem to be the intended message.

It says "mainly". That's vague-ish. I assumed greater than 50%; probably something like 75% of the time or more.

Rationality Quotes Thread February 2016

by elharo 1 min read2nd Feb 201697 comments

5


Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:

  • Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.
  • Post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself.
  • Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.