George's Shortform

I'm wondering if, in a competitive system with intelligent agents, regression to the mean is to be expected when one accumulates enough power.

Thinking about the business and investment strategies that a lot of rich people advocate, they seem kinda silly to me. In that they match the mental model of the economy of someone who never really bothered studying the market would have. It's stuff like "just invest in safe index funds", and other such strategies that will never get you rich (nowadays) if you start out poor. Indeed, you'd fi... (read more)

regression to the mean is going to happen in any system with a large random (or anti-inductive and unpredictable) component. That doesn't seem to be what you're talking about. You seem to be talking about variance and declining marginal utility (or rather, exception cases where marginal utility is actually increasing).

Nobody got rich in retail investing. A lot of people stayed comfortable for longer than they otherwise would have, but to paraphrase the old saying, the best way to make a million in the stock market is to start with 50 million... (read more)

George's Shortform

by George 25th Oct 201960 comments