Decision theory shows us that a huge portion of making big decisions is making accurate predictions about the future

Where does it show us that's true?

More importantently how do you know that the customers of mangement consulting believe that's true? Do you think that the average Fortune 500 CEO invests resources into internal prediction making in a way to indicate that he believes this is true?

I think if the average Fortune 500 CEO would believe this to be true you would have much more internal prediction markets in companies. Programs for internal prediction markets that are not sold based on team building efforts but that are sold on actually producing actionable data.

[anonymous]4y0

Where does it show us that's true?

I mean, I'm convinced by the math. You are welcome to disagree with the math, but you'll have to show me some other math that disproves everything that decision theorists have already figured out.

I think if the average Fortune 500 CEO would believe this to be true you would have much more internal prediction markets in companies. Programs for internal prediction markets that are not sold based on team building efforts but that are sold on actually producing actionable data.

We have different models here. In my mode... (read more)

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


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