You are too skeptical of it, and haven't read some of the recent research on how effective it can be in a variety of situations.

From my internal view I'm sceptical of it because I'm familiar with it :-/

it's signaling all the way down (Top companies hire from top colleges, take from top highschools)

Um, hiring from top colleges is not quite all signaling. There is quite a gap between, say, an average Stanford undergrad and an average undergrad of some small backwater college.

You should read the linked article on prediction polls - they weren't even paying people in Tetlock's study

Um, I was one of Tetlocks' forecasters for a year. I wasn't terribly impressed, though. I think it's a bit premature to declare that they "solved the problem".

With people who claim to have awesome forecasting power or techniques, I tend to point at financial markets and ask why aren't they filthy rich.

[anonymous]4y0

From my internal view I'm sceptical of it because I'm familiar with it :-/

You're right, I was assuming things about you I shouldn't have.

Um, hiring from top colleges is not quite all signaling. There is quite a gap between, say, an average Stanford undergrad and an average undergrad of some small backwater college.

Fair point. But the point is that they're going on something like "the average undergrad" and discounting all the outliers. Especially problematic in this case because forecasting is an orthogonal skillset to what it takes to g... (read more)

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


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