[anonymous]4y3

I'm not buying your elevator pitch.

To be frank, I didn't expect you to based on our previous conversations on forecasting. You are too skeptical of it, and haven't read some of the recent research on how effective it can be in a variety of situations.

is not true because they lack people smart enough to correctly process the data, interpret it, and arrive at the correct conclusions.

Exactly, this is the problem I'm solving.

So, what's wrong with the stock price as the metric?

As I said, the signaling problem. Using previous performance as a metric means that there are lots of good forecasters out there who simply can't get discovered - right now, it's signaling all the way down (Top companies hire from top colleges, take from top highschools). Basically, I'm betting that there are lots of organizations and people out there who are good forecasters, but don't have the right signals to prove it.

Besides, evaluating forecasting capability is... difficult. Both theoretically (out of many possible futures only one gets realized) and practically (there is no incentive for people to give you hard predictions they make).

You should read the linked article on prediction polls - they weren't even paying people in Tetlock's study (only giving giftcard gifts not at all comensurate to the work people are putting in) and they solved the problem to the point where they could beat prediction markets.

You are too skeptical of it, and haven't read some of the recent research on how effective it can be in a variety of situations.

From my internal view I'm sceptical of it because I'm familiar with it :-/

it's signaling all the way down (Top companies hire from top colleges, take from top highschools)

Um, hiring from top colleges is not quite all signaling. There is quite a gap between, say, an average Stanford undergrad and an average undergrad of some small backwater college.

You should read the linked article on prediction polls - they weren't even

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Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

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