I mean, I'm convinced by the math. You are welcome to disagree with the math, but you'll have to show me some other math that disproves everything that decision theorists have already figured out.

The math depends heavily on the axioms that you use. It's quite easy to choose axioms in a way that you get the outcome you are looking for. The question is whether those axioms are warrented.

prediction markets would remove the ability of those people to make excuses, so the political factions don't allow them

Why can't the CEO order prediction markets to be created? Do you think the political factions wouldn't create markets if ordered to do so?

[anonymous]4y0

The math depends heavily on the axioms that you use. It's quite easy to choose axioms in a way that you get the outcome you are looking for. The question is whether those axioms are warrented.

As I said, you're welcome to show me some axioms that show that forecasting is NOT a huge part of making big decisions.

Why can't the CEO order prediction markets to be created? Do you think the political factions wouldn't create markets if ordered to do so?

Because good CEO's understand that buy-in is essential for any project. You can order projects all day and alienate your workforce, but that's not how the fortune 500 CEOs got to be fortune 500 CEOs

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


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