That's the signalling issue

Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.

If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don't have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn't a problem.

I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.

[anonymous]4y0

Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.

Because you're going by the signal (the college name), not the actual thing you're measuring for (forecasting ability).

I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.

I meant a problem for frequent updates. Obviously, less participants will lead to less accurate forecasts - but by brier weighting and extremizing you can still get fairly decent results.

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


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