discounting all the outliers

Not necessarily. Recall that a slight shift in the mean of a normal distribution (e.g. IQ scores) results in strong domination in the tails.

Besides, searching for talent has costs. You're much better off searching for talent at top tier schools than at no-name colleges hoping for a hidden gem.

using the market to get these types of questions answered is hard

What "types of questions" do you have in mind? And wouldn't liquidity issues be fixed just by popularity?

forecasting is an orthogonal skillset to what it takes to get into a top college.

Let me propose IQ as a common cause leading to correlation. I don't think the skillsets are orthogonal.

What part specifically of that paper do you think was unimpressive?

I read it a while ago and don't remember enough to do a critique off the top of my head, sorry...

[anonymous]4y0

Besides, searching for talent has costs. You're much better off searching for talent at top tier schools than at no-name colleges hoping for a hidden gem.

That's the signalling issue - I'm trying to create a better signal so you don't have to make that tradeoff

What "types of questions" do you have in mind? And wouldn't liquidity issues be fixed just by popularity?

Question Example: "How many units will this product sell in Q1 2016?" (Where this product is something boring, like a brand of toilet paper)

This is a question that I don'... (read more)

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.


Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.