[anonymous]4y0

GiveWell already uses expert advice for expedient impact assessments. Albeit on a small scale, without using academic- know how and with suboptimal choice and choice architecture of their experts. Hope you can improve on it :)

You've picked the wrong problem domain for the scoring rules. Briar comes from probability assessment, there are already more sophisticated approaches to this problem several levels removed from the mathematical theory and synthesising several theoreums.

The most proximate implementations of what you are suggesting are either delphi groups (risk analysis) or prediction markets (rationalist subculture mainly, but also academic). You probably already know how prediction markets work and you can look up 'expert elicitation' or 'eliciting expert judgement' and similar terms if you're interested. Happy to answer any tougher questions you can't get answered.

There are structured approaches to delphi groups which incorporate bayes rules and insights around the psychology of eliciting and structuring expert judgement that you could mimic. There is at least one major corporate consultancy focused on this already, however. AFAIK there are no implementations of this kind in the blockchain. Whether that is a worthwhile competitive advantage is another question.

You have a strategic mindset, I like it. If I've interpreted your question accurately, the reason other's in the know may not have responded is the xy problem.

[anonymous]4y1

There are structured approaches to delphi groups which incorporate bayes rules and insights around the psychology of eliciting and structuring expert judgement that you could mimic.

Yes, the technology I'm using (prediction polls) are essentially this. It's Delphi groups weighted by Brier scores. The paper I link to above compares them to a prediction market with the same questions - with proper extremizing algorithms, the prediction poll actually does better (especially early on).

The reason I came up with this solution is that I wanted to use predict... (read more)

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.


Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.