[anonymous]4y0

Where does it show us that's true?

I mean, I'm convinced by the math. You are welcome to disagree with the math, but you'll have to show me some other math that disproves everything that decision theorists have already figured out.

I think if the average Fortune 500 CEO would believe this to be true you would have much more internal prediction markets in companies. Programs for internal prediction markets that are not sold based on team building efforts but that are sold on actually producing actionable data.

We have different models here. In my model, Prediction Markets aren't used because politics are set up for people who can make excuses - prediction markets would remove the ability of those people to make excuses, so the political factions don't allow them. Management consulting firms solve this by coming in as an outsider endorsed by the fortune 500CEO (therefore bypassing most of the politics) and making those predictions themselves. I'm just trying to bring down the cost of these outsiders, so that the CEO can use them for many more decisions.

I mean, I'm convinced by the math. You are welcome to disagree with the math, but you'll have to show me some other math that disproves everything that decision theorists have already figured out.

The math depends heavily on the axioms that you use. It's quite easy to choose axioms in a way that you get the outcome you are looking for. The question is whether those axioms are warrented.

prediction markets would remove the ability of those people to make excuses, so the political factions don't allow them

Why can't the CEO order prediction markets to be created? Do you think the political factions wouldn't create markets if ordered to do so?

Open Thread, Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, 2016

by [anonymous] 1 min read27th Dec 2015145 comments

10


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