My intuition is from the six points in Kahan's post. If the next flip is heads, then the flip after is more likely to be tails, relative to if the next flip is tails. If we have an equal number of heads and tails left, P(HT) > P(HH) for the next two flips. After the first heads, the probability for the next two might not give P(TH) > P(TT), but relative to independence it will be biased in that direction because the first T gets used up.

Is there a mistake? I haven't done any probability in a while.

If the next flip is heads, then the flip after is more likely to be tails, relative to if the next flip is tails.

No, that is not correct. Have a look at my list of 16 length-4 sequences. Exactly half of all flips-after-heads are heads, and the other half tails. Exactly half of all flips-after-tails are heads, and the other half tails.

The result of Miller and Sanjuro is very specifically about "averages of averages". Here's a key quotation:

We demonstrate that in a finite sequence generated by i.i.d. Bernoulli trials with probability of succes

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Open thread, Nov. 23 - Nov. 29, 2015

by MrMind 1 min read23rd Nov 2015258 comments

5


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