Hi, Optimind. I'd suggest starting with either An Intuitive explanation of Bayes Theorem or An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. After that all of the sequences(except maybe the quantum mechanics one) are worth reading.
Thanks! Bayes theorem seems very useful, though I haven't gotten through it all yet. I'm not a good reader yet.
Have you got any idea how far is my goal from everybody elses in here?